歐佩克周三（10月12日)大幅下調(diào)了其對(duì)2022年和2023年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期，理由是經(jīng)濟(jì)逆風(fēng)影響

就在一周前，歐佩克+宣布將其原油日產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)大幅削減200萬(wàn)桶

歐佩克認(rèn)為，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)已進(jìn)入一個(gè)重大不確定性和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況惡化的時(shí)期

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)10月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，石油輸出國(guó)組織(歐佩克)周三大幅下調(diào)了其對(duì)2022年和2023年的全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，一周前歐佩克+宣布將其原油總產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)每天整體下調(diào)200萬(wàn)桶。

在今天發(fā)布的備受關(guān)注的《月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》(MOMR)中，歐佩克將其對(duì)2022年全球石油日需求增長(zhǎng)的估計(jì)下調(diào)了46萬(wàn)桶，原因是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)阻力和各地的通脹壓力。歐佩克目前預(yù)計(jì)，今年全球石油日需求將增加260萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到日均9970萬(wàn)桶。

同樣，歐佩克還將2023年的全球石油日需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期下調(diào)了36萬(wàn)桶，預(yù)計(jì)明年的全球石油日需求增長(zhǎng)為230萬(wàn)桶。歐佩克表示，鑒于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的不確定性和疫情相關(guān)的因素，全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)將“受到阻力”。

在今年和明年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)大幅下調(diào)之前，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟上周宣布了自2020年以來(lái)最大的集體原油產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)大幅下調(diào)。  

盡管歐佩克+成員國(guó)堅(jiān)稱(chēng)，減產(chǎn)是基于技術(shù)市場(chǎng)評(píng)估，目的是“穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)”，但許多分析人士認(rèn)為，此舉是一種政治行為。 

歐佩克以更強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)逆風(fēng)為理由，下調(diào)了全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)。  

歐佩克表示：“全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)已進(jìn)入一個(gè)充滿重大不確定性和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況惡化的時(shí)期，同時(shí)面臨日益嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)，包括高通脹水平、主要央行收緊貨幣政策、利率上升和持續(xù)的供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題?！?/p>

歐佩克表示：“展望未來(lái)，盡管供暖石油需求通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)季節(jié)性增長(zhǎng)，但不確定性水平升高、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩以及可能再次出現(xiàn)的疫情帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)預(yù)計(jì)將影響2022年和2023年的全球石油需求?！睔W佩克還指出，歐佩克+上周決定將其目標(biāo)原油日產(chǎn)量削減200萬(wàn)桶，這是一種先發(fā)制人的積極舉措，“旨在持續(xù)不懈地為市場(chǎng)提供可持續(xù)的穩(wěn)定”。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC Slashes Global Oil Demand Forecast

·     OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth estimates on Wednesday for both 2022 and 2023, citing economic headwinds .

·     The decision comes just a week after OPEC+ announced a 2 million barrels per day cut to its production target.

·     OPEC believes the global economy has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

OPEC slashed on Wednesday its global oil demand growth estimates for both 2022 and 2023, a week after announcing a 2-million-bpd headline cut to its collective oil production target.

In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) out today, OPEC revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth for 2022 by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd), economic headwinds in developed economies, and inflationary pressures everywhere. OPEC now sees world oil demand growing by 2.6 million bpd this year to average 99.7 million bpd.

Similarly, the cartel also slashed its oil demand growth forecast for 2023, by 360,000 bpd, expecting growth at 2.3 million bpd next year. Demand growth would be “subject to headwinds given the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic outlook and factors related to the pandemic,” OPEC said.

The significant downward revisions to oil demand growth this year and next come after the OPEC+ group announced last week the biggest cut to its collective target since 2020.

Despite insistence from all of OPEC+ that the production cut was based on technical market assessments and is aimed at “stability,” many analysts, saw the move as a political one.

In today’s report, OPEC cited stronger economic headwinds to justify the downward revision to its global oil demand growth forecasts.

“Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues,” OPEC said.

“Looking ahead, and despite the usual seasonal hike in oil demand for heating, the challenges presented by the heightened levels of uncertainty, the slowing economic growth and a possible resurgence of COVID are expected to impact oil demand in 2022 and 2023,” the cartel said. OPEC also noted that last week’s decision of OPEC+ to cut 2 million bpd off its target production level was a pre-emptive and pro-active move “in an ongoing and relentless effort to provide a sustainable stability to the market.”