據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年10月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于太陽能光伏設(shè)備制造商和電池制造商面臨不斷攀升的成本，歐洲各地創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的電價(jià)正在破壞歐洲大陸建立可靠的低碳供應(yīng)鏈和實(shí)現(xiàn)脫碳目標(biāo)的努力。

挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究結(jié)果顯示，除非電力價(jià)格迅速恢復(fù)正常水平，否則35吉瓦的太陽能光伏生產(chǎn)能力和超過2000吉瓦時(shí)的電池生產(chǎn)能力可能會(huì)被封存。 

由于經(jīng)營成本上升，這些生產(chǎn)過程的能源密集型性質(zhì)導(dǎo)致一些運(yùn)營商臨時(shí)關(guān)閉或放棄生產(chǎn)設(shè)施。 除非價(jià)格很快好轉(zhuǎn)，否則歐洲通過提高可再生能源發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量和電動(dòng)汽車(EV)使用率來減少對(duì)進(jìn)口化石燃料依賴的計(jì)劃可能會(huì)破產(chǎn)。 

Rystad能源服務(wù)研究主管奧登· 馬丁森說，高電價(jià)不僅對(duì)歐洲的脫碳努力構(gòu)成重大威脅，還可能導(dǎo)致對(duì)海外制造業(yè)的依賴增加，這是歐盟各國政府都急于避免的。如果歐洲大陸要堅(jiān)持包括歐盟REPowerEU能源計(jì)劃在內(nèi)的目標(biāo)，建立一個(gè)可靠的國內(nèi)低碳供應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)侵陵P(guān)重要的，但就目前情況來看，這是非常危險(xiǎn)的。

最近幾周，由于核電站和水電站的意外停運(yùn)、酷暑天氣對(duì)冷卻設(shè)備的需求飆升以及天然氣供應(yīng)減少，歐洲的電價(jià)已升至前所未有的水平。

在歐洲太陽能和電池制造能力領(lǐng)先的德國，每日平均現(xiàn)貨電價(jià)已超過每兆瓦時(shí)595美元，而法國的現(xiàn)貨電價(jià)已超過每兆瓦時(shí)695美元。在高峰時(shí)段，歐洲的電價(jià)已飆升至每兆瓦時(shí)1490美元，這對(duì)包括工業(yè)部門在內(nèi)的消費(fèi)者來說是不可持續(xù)的水平。盡管自8月份的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)以來，電價(jià)已大幅回落，但電價(jià)仍維持在每兆瓦時(shí)300至400美元區(qū)間，比能源危機(jī)前的正常水平高出許多倍。 

Rystad補(bǔ)充說，歐洲人近幾年來受益于可靠和負(fù)擔(dān)得起的電力。低碳制造商也將他們的產(chǎn)能建設(shè)建立在每兆瓦時(shí)50美元左右的穩(wěn)定電價(jià)上。由于亞洲等其他地區(qū)的制造商享受著較低的電力投入費(fèi)用，相比之下，歐洲制造商正變得越來越?jīng)]有競爭力。  

盡管歐洲的太陽能生產(chǎn)能力在全球范圍內(nèi)相對(duì)較弱，僅占總可再生能源產(chǎn)能的2%，但任何項(xiàng)目的關(guān)閉或放棄都將產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的長期負(fù)面影響。歐盟(EU)的目標(biāo)是到2025年前達(dá)到20吉瓦的產(chǎn)能，盡管目前計(jì)劃有35吉瓦的項(xiàng)目，但許多項(xiàng)目尚未獲得資金，如果高電價(jià)持續(xù)下去，這些項(xiàng)目將面臨失敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

在挪威，電力成本上漲了6倍，導(dǎo)致能源密集型的太陽能電池板制造業(yè)考慮在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)關(guān)閉。 鑒于歐洲天然氣短缺預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)數(shù)年，且電價(jià)將持續(xù)高企，為太陽能制造工廠吸引融資和投資可能具有挑戰(zhàn)性。 

電池  

電池制造在電動(dòng)汽車和電池存儲(chǔ)供應(yīng)鏈中至關(guān)重要，它的能源密集型甚至超過太陽能制造業(yè)，而歐洲是全球主要參與者。歐盟目前擁有約550吉瓦時(shí)的產(chǎn)能，占全球運(yùn)營產(chǎn)能的27%。已宣布的正在開發(fā)中的項(xiàng)目將顯著提高總產(chǎn)能，總產(chǎn)能將提高到2.7太瓦時(shí)，使歐盟成為全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。然而，現(xiàn)在這些項(xiàng)目都面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，汽車制造和電池存儲(chǔ)部門可能難以獲得歐洲制造的電池。

由于能源成本上升和需要額外融資，英倫伏特在英國布萊思的標(biāo)志性千兆電池工廠(該工廠將為歐洲大陸的制造能力增加30兆瓦時(shí))已被推遲至2025年年中。由于亞洲制造商享受著低得多的電價(jià)，歐洲制造商迅速擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的計(jì)劃可能會(huì)受到挑戰(zhàn)。根據(jù)電力價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲的時(shí)間，歐洲電動(dòng)汽車的采用率可能會(huì)放緩。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

European Renewable Energy Supply Chain Under Threat

Record-breaking electricity prices across Europe are damaging the continent’s attempts to build a reliable low-carbon supply chain and reach its decarbonization targets, as solar and battery manufacturers face mounting costs.

Rystad Energy research shows that 35 GW of solar PV manufacturing and more than 2,000 GWh of battery cell manufacturing capacity could be mothballed unless power prices quickly return to normal levels.

The energy-intensive nature of these manufacturing processes is leading some operators to temporarily close or abandon production facilities as the cost of doing business escalates. Unless prices turn around soon, Europe’s plans to cut dependence on imported fossil fuels by boosting installed renewable generation capacity and electric vehicle (EV) usage could be derailed.

“High power prices not only pose a significant threat to European decarbonization efforts but could also result in increased reliance on overseas manufacturing, something governments are eager to avoid. Building a reliable domestic low-carbon supply chain is essential if the continent is going to stick to its goals, including the REPowerEU plan, but as things stand, that is in serious jeopardy,” Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s head of energy service research, said.

European electricity prices have risen to unprecedented levels in recent weeks due to unplanned nuclear and hydropower plant outages, soaring demand for cooling during an oppressive summer heatwave, and reduced gas deliveries.

Daily average spot power prices in Germany – Europe’s leader in solar and battery cell manufacturing capacity – have surpassed $595 per MWh, while rates in France have topped $695 per MWh. During peak hours, European power prices have spiked to $1,490 per MWh, unsustainable levels for consumers, including the industrial sector. Although prices have retreated significantly since these record highs in August, rates remain in the $300 to $400 range, many multiples above pre-energy crisis norms.

Rystad added that Europeans have benefited from reliable and affordable electricity in recent years. Low-carbon manufacturers have also predicated their build-up of production capacity on stable power prices of around $50 per MWh. With manufacturers in other regions, such as Asia, enjoying lower electricity input tariffs, European producers are becoming increasingly uncompetitive by comparison.

Although Europe’s solar manufacturing capacity is relatively modest on a global scale – making up only 2% of total capacity – any shutdowns or abandonment of projects would have significant long-term negative consequences. The European Union (EU) has targeted 20 GW of production capacity by 2025, and although 35 GW of projects is currently planned, many have not secured funding, increasing the risk that these projects will fall through if high power prices continue.

In Norway, electricity costs have risen six-fold, leading the energy-intensive solar panel manufacturing industry to consider shutting down for the remainder of 2022. With Europe expected to be short on gas for several years and high electricity prices to continue as a result, attracting financing and investment for solar manufacturing plants could prove challenging.

Battery cells

Battery cell manufacturing – crucial in the EV and battery storage supply chain – is even more energy intensive than solar manufacturing, and Europe is a major global player. The EU currently boasts about 550 GWh of capacity, representing 27% of global operational capacity. Announced projects under development are set to boost that total significantly, increasing capacity to 2.7 terawatt-hours, positioning the EU as a global leader. However, those are now at risk, and the car manufacturing and battery storage sectors could struggle to source European-made batteries as a result.

Britishvolt’s signature giga-sized battery factory in Blyth in the UK – which would add 30 GWh to the continent’s manufacturing capabilities – has already been delayed to mid-2025 due to rising energy costs and the need for additional fundraising. With Asian manufacturers enjoying much lower power prices, European manufacturers’ plans to rapidly scale production could be challenged. Depending on how long elevated power prices continue, a slowdown in EV adoption in Europe could follow.