據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)10月4日表示，到今年年底，油價(jià)將出現(xiàn)不對(duì)稱的上行驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)持有2023年6月WTI看漲期權(quán)，價(jià)格為每桶120美元。 

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)全球能源戰(zhàn)略總經(jīng)理邁克爾·特蘭對(duì)彭博新聞社記者表示，歐盟(EU)對(duì)海上原油進(jìn)口的禁運(yùn)，以及加強(qiáng)制裁，將推動(dòng)油價(jià)走高。 

特蘭表示，原油期貨的波動(dòng)和震蕩交易料將持續(xù)，但投資者應(yīng)長線投資，給自己時(shí)間證實(shí)或者證偽自身觀點(diǎn)。他還說，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂目前主導(dǎo)著市場(chǎng)情緒，但投資者應(yīng)超越眼前的“癱瘓”交易，耐心等待他們的押注變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)。  

特蘭對(duì)彭博新聞社記者表示，今年夏天，石油市場(chǎng)受擔(dān)憂因素驅(qū)動(dòng)，而非基本面因素驅(qū)動(dòng)，WTI交易量下降了30%-40%，加劇了市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)。

他補(bǔ)充稱，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)不會(huì)很快消失。 

特蘭在評(píng)論周三召開的歐佩克+會(huì)議時(shí)表示，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將宣布每日減產(chǎn)50萬—100萬桶，可能是減產(chǎn)幅度的上限。

周一，石油價(jià)格上漲超過4%，此前有報(bào)道稱歐佩克+計(jì)劃削減100萬桶甚至更多的原油日產(chǎn)量。每日減產(chǎn)100萬桶或更多可能會(huì)對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生影響，盡管至少自6月以來，歐佩克+的原油日產(chǎn)量一直低于其目標(biāo)200萬桶以上。

特蘭對(duì)彭博新聞社記者表示，歐佩克+將繼續(xù)努力支撐市場(chǎng)和價(jià)格。但他指出，大幅減產(chǎn)可能會(huì)讓市場(chǎng)陷入兩難境地，交易商會(huì)問自己，歐佩克+對(duì)真實(shí)原油實(shí)物需求有哪些是市場(chǎng)所不知道的。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Analyst: Prices Will Climb Over The Next 9 Months

There are asymmetrical upside drivers for oil prices by the end of the year, according to RBC Capital Markets, which is long oil with WTI call options for June 2023 at $120 a barrel.

The increased sanctions with the EU embargo on crude oil imports by sea are set to drive oil higher, Michael Tran, managing director of Global Energy Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told BNN Bloomberg.  

Volatility and choppy trading in crude oil futures are expected to continue, but investors should play the long game and give themselves time to see their view play out, Tran said. Recession fears dominate market sentiment now, but investors should look beyond the immediate ‘palsy’ trade and be patient for their bet to materialize, he added.

This summer, the oil market was driven by fears, not fundamentals, and trading volumes in WTI were 30-40% lower, which exacerbated market volatility, Tran told BNN Bloomberg.  

Volatility will not go away any time soon, he added.

Commenting on the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, Tran said RBC Capital Markets expects the alliance to announce a sizeable cut of between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1 million bpd, possibly at the upper end of that range.

On Monday, oil prices rallied more than 4% after reports emerged that OPEC+ was looking to cut 1 million bpd and even more. A cut of 1 million barrels daily or more is likely to have an impact on prices, even though OPEC+ has been undershooting its target by over 2 million bpd since at least June.

OPEC+ will continue to try to support the market and prices, Tran told BNN Bloomberg. But he noted that a large cut could be a Catch-22 for the market, with traders asking themselves what OPEC+ knows about the actual physical demand that the market doesn’t.