持續(xù)的供給側(cè)沖擊使油價居高不下 

盡管經(jīng)濟增速即將放緩，但全球石油需求依然強勁  

多年來最低的備用產(chǎn)能緩沖支撐了油價，并將繼續(xù)成為市場的看漲因素

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)9月24日報道，疫情后經(jīng)濟和石油需求的反彈，使全球備用石油產(chǎn)能處于非常低的水平，在短期內(nèi)吸收可能出現(xiàn)的供應(yīng)方面沖擊的緩沖空間非常小。盡管世界上許多地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)開始放緩，歐洲和美國也擔(dān)心會出現(xiàn)衰退，但油價還沒有跌到每桶90美元以下。對供應(yīng)中斷的擔(dān)憂和對衰退可能減緩石油需求增長的擔(dān)憂一樣加劇。  

多年來最低的備用產(chǎn)能緩沖支撐著油價，并將繼續(xù)成為市場的利好因素，至少在短期內(nèi)是如此，因為沒有預(yù)測者或分析師能夠確定，在歐盟對產(chǎn)能大國海上原油進(jìn)口禁令生效后的短短三個月內(nèi)，全球石油供應(yīng)將損失多少。 

當(dāng)然，有一種方法肯定能讓世界看到備用產(chǎn)能的增加和石油庫存從多年來的低點恢復(fù)到更舒適的水平——那就是經(jīng)濟衰退。路透社高級市場分析師約翰·肯普指出，要使全球石油庫存達(dá)到5年平均水平，就需要全球經(jīng)濟活動嚴(yán)重放緩或徹底衰退。

目前看來，經(jīng)濟衰退是重建全球石油庫存的唯一途徑。  

在供應(yīng)方面，歐佩克+和美國都無法在短期內(nèi)實質(zhì)性提高石油供應(yīng)。據(jù)估計，歐佩克+目前的石油日產(chǎn)量比其目標(biāo)產(chǎn)量低360萬桶。此外，全球備用產(chǎn)能僅掌握在兩個歐佩克產(chǎn)油大國沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國的手中。沙特近日表示，全球經(jīng)濟的下一次反彈將耗盡備用產(chǎn)能。  

沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席執(zhí)行官阿敏·納賽爾日前表示：“全球石油庫存很低，目前全球有效備用產(chǎn)能約為全球需求的1.5%?！?/p>

納賽爾說，“但當(dāng)全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇時，我們可以預(yù)期全球石油需求將進(jìn)一步反彈，這將消除少量的備用石油產(chǎn)能。當(dāng)世界意識到這些盲點時，改變方向可能已經(jīng)太晚了?！奔{賽爾再次警告稱，多年來對石油和天然氣的投資不足導(dǎo)致了目前的極低備用產(chǎn)能和市場緊張。

與此同時，美國石油業(yè)高管說，今年冬天美國無法為歐洲提供援助，因為美國的石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商無法大幅提高目前的油氣產(chǎn)量，以抵消歐盟禁運生效后石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)的下降。

所有這些都讓需求方需要重新平衡市場。如果出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟衰退，全球石油需求增長將明顯放緩，甚至需求將大幅下降，那么備用產(chǎn)能和庫存可能會從多年低點回升。

世界銀行日前表示，由于各國央行大舉加息以抑制通脹，2023年全球經(jīng)濟可能會陷入衰退。就在不久前，美聯(lián)儲將關(guān)鍵利率連續(xù)第三次上調(diào)75個基點，英國央行將利率上調(diào)50個基點至2.25%，為2008年金融危機爆發(fā)以來的最高利率上調(diào)。

盡管主要經(jīng)濟體果斷收緊貨幣政策，但歐佩克和國際能源署(IEA)都認(rèn)為，在2022年和2023年，全球每年石油需求量將繼續(xù)增長。盡管經(jīng)濟環(huán)境惡化，以及由于疫情影響對需求的擔(dān)憂，但國際能源署仍然預(yù)計，今年世界石油日需求量將增加200萬桶，明年將再增加210萬桶。歐佩克的最新預(yù)測顯示，該組織仍預(yù)計今年全球經(jīng)濟增長將保持在3.1%的強勁水平，明年全球經(jīng)濟將繼續(xù)增長3.1%。這表明，盡管市場擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟衰退，歐佩克仍預(yù)計全球石油需求將健康增長。

此外，分析師和預(yù)測人士表示，今年冬季油氣轉(zhuǎn)換和石油產(chǎn)品市場吃緊(尤其是歐洲的柴油市場)也可能支持石油需求，即使是在經(jīng)濟輕度衰退的環(huán)境下。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Razor-Thin Spare Capacity To Keep Oil Prices Elevated

·     ongoing supply-side shocks are keeping oil prices elevated.

·     Despite looming economic slowdowns, oil demand has remained strong.

·     The thinnest spare capacity cushion in years is supportive of oil prices and will continue to be a bullish factor on the market.

The post-COVID rebound in economies and oil demand have left global spare oil production capacity at very low levels with a very small cushion to absorb possible supply-side shocks in the near term. Despite the economic slowdown already underway in many parts of the world and fears of recessions in Europe and the United States, oil prices haven’t fallen too far below $90 per barrel. Fears of supply disruptions have increased as much as fears of recessions that could slow oil demand growth.

The thinnest spare capacity cushion in years is supportive of oil prices and will continue to be a bullish factor on the market, at least in the short term, considering that no forecaster or analyst can be certain how much global oil supply will be lost in just three months when the EU embargo on Russian oil imports by sea enters into force.

Certainly, there is one sure-fire way for the world to see rising spare capacity and oil inventories rebuilding from multi-year lows to more comfortable levels—recession. A serious slowdown in economic activity or an outright recession would be needed to bring global oil stocks up to five-year average levels, as Reuters’ senior market analyst John Kemp notes.

And right now, it looks like a recession is the only way to rebuild global oil inventories.

On the supply side, neither OPEC+ nor the U.S. can materially boost supply in the short term. OPEC+ is estimated to be a massive 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) below its targeted oil production. Moreover, global spare capacity is in the hands of just two OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Saudis themselves admitted this week that the next rebound in economies would wipe out the spare capacity.  

“Oil inventories are low, and effective global spare capacity is now about one and a half percent of global demand,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said this week.

“But when the global economy recovers, we can expect demand to rebound further, eliminating the little spare oil production capacity out there. And by the time the world wakes up to these blind spots, it may be too late to change course,” he added, reiterating the warning that years of underinvestment in oil and gas have brought about the current low spare capacity and tight markets.

At the same time, American oil executives say that the U.S. cannot come to the rescue for Europe this winter as oil and gas producers can’t ramp up current production levels too much to offset an expected drop in Russian oil supply when the EU embargo enters into force.

All this leaves the demand side to rebalance the market. If a severe recession with significantly slower oil demand growth or even a demand drop materializes, spare capacity and inventories could rise from multi-year lows.

A recession may be coming for the world in 2023 as central banks aggressively hike interest rates to tame inflation, the World Bank said last week. Just this week, the Fed raised the key rate by another 75 basis points for a third consecutive time, and the Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points to 2.25%, the highest rate since the start of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite the decisively tightening monetary policy in major economies, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) continue to see global oil demand growing annually both in 2022 and 2023. Despite the deteriorating economic environment and concerns over demand due to COVID lockdowns, the IEA expects world oil demand to grow by 2 million bpd in 2022 and by another 2.1 million bpd next year. OPEC, for its part, still sees global economic growth staying robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year in its latest forecast, suggesting that the cartel still expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession.

Moreover, analysts and forecasters say that gas to oil switching this winter and tight product markets—especially diesel in Europe—could also support oil demand even in a mildly recessionary environment.