據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年9月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不斷惡化，高盛公司周二下調(diào)了其對(duì)油價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)，盡管高盛公司仍然看好石油。

高盛公司表示，它對(duì)油價(jià)仍持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，考慮到石油市場(chǎng)“極度緊張”的狀態(tài)，油價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)可能會(huì)從當(dāng)前水平上漲。高盛公司指出，美元走強(qiáng)和需求預(yù)期走弱將“對(duì)油價(jià)構(gòu)成強(qiáng)大的阻力，直至年底”。 

高盛公司分析師Damien Courvalin和Callum Bruce周二在給客戶(hù)的報(bào)告中表示，然而，由于缺乏投資、備用產(chǎn)能和庫(kù)存較低，結(jié)構(gòu)性看漲的供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)只會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)勁，這必然要求價(jià)格大幅上漲。  

高盛公司預(yù)計(jì)，今年最后三個(gè)月布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格將為每桶100美元，低于其此前預(yù)測(cè)的每桶125美元，而此前預(yù)測(cè)的每桶130美元已經(jīng)有所下降。目前布倫特原油價(jià)格接近每桶86美元。 

高盛公司預(yù)計(jì)明年布倫特原油均價(jià)可能為每桶108美元，也低于其此前預(yù)測(cè)的每桶125美元。  

高盛公司表示：“只有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸，才能證明價(jià)格持續(xù)走低是合理的。”

至于歐佩克，高盛公司預(yù)計(jì)該組織在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)將把產(chǎn)量維持在當(dāng)前水平附近，不過(guò)在即將到來(lái)的10月5日會(huì)議上，如果出現(xiàn)大幅減產(chǎn)，將引發(fā)油價(jià)反彈。

高盛公司建議客戶(hù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)2024年12月到期的布倫特原油期貨合約。高盛公司全年都持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，即使在多次下調(diào)油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)的情況下也是如此。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Drops Oil Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast on Tuesday on the deteriorating global economic outlook—although it remained bullish on oil.

Goldman said it remained bullish, anticipating that oil prices would likely rise from the current levels given the state of the “critically tight” market. The group cited the strong dollar and weakening demand forecast, which will “remain powerful headwinds to prices into year-end. Yet, the structural bullish supply set-up -- due to the lack of investment, low spare capacity and inventories -- has only grown stronger, inevitably requiring much higher prices.” Goldman Sachs analysts Damien Courvalin and Callum Bruce said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs sees the price of Brent crude oil averaging $100 per barrel over the last three months of the year—down from its previous bullish forecast of $125 per barrel, which was already down from yet another forecast of $130 per barrel. Currently, Brent is trading near $86 per barrel.

For next year, Goldman sees Brent averaging a likely $108 per barrel, also down from its previous prediction of $125 per barrel.

“It would take an economic hard-landing to justify sustained lower prices,” Goldman said.

As for OPEC, Goldman sees the group keeping production near current levels for the remainder of the year, although any significant production cut at the upcoming Oct 5 meeting would trigger a rebound in prices.

Goldman’s recommendation to clients was to purchase Brent futures contracts that expire in December 2024. Goldman has been bullish all year, even through various downgrades to its oil price forecasts.