據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2022年9月28日報道，美國達拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行周三公布的一項調查結果顯示，接受調查的油氣行業(yè)高管們擔心經(jīng)濟衰退和供應短缺，盡管本季度油氣企業(yè)活動穩(wěn)健，但這種樂觀情緒正在不斷減弱。  

石油和天然氣行業(yè)高管們對達拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行表示，在不確定性加劇的情況下，經(jīng)濟衰退仍然是一個主要擔憂。  

“很難說這些相互矛盾的潮流將走向何方。 一方面，我們不知道有沒有人注意到，但兩年期和十年期國債收益率曲線顛倒了，這意味著經(jīng)濟衰退，”一位高管評論道。  

然而，同一位高管指出，盡管長期需求強勁，歐佩克繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)不佳，“頁巖巖芯枯竭”和庫存擔憂仍然是關鍵問題。 

“頁巖可能會在5年內崩潰，美國的產(chǎn)量將迅速下降20%到30%。 21世紀20年代末的油價將是值得關注的問題，”這名高管如是說 

當被問及到2024年石油市場大幅收緊的預期時，一位高管指出，市場已經(jīng)吃緊，這表明現(xiàn)貨市場價格并非基于真實的基本面。

“我很難理解為什么現(xiàn)貨油價會跌到今天這么低，為什么遠期曲線上仍然存在現(xiàn)貨溢價。 在我看來，世界石油供應非常短缺，即使在北美鉆井和完井活動顯著增加(現(xiàn)在趨于穩(wěn)定)之后，經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織(oecd)的石油庫存仍在大幅減少，”這位高管評論道，并補充說歐佩克“有史以來第一次”承認沒有任何備用產(chǎn)能。 

總得說來，達拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行指出，樂觀情緒已經(jīng)減弱。 盡管前景指數(shù)連續(xù)第9個月為正值，但最新數(shù)據(jù)亦顯示前景不確定性指數(shù)下降33點至33.1，整體前景不確定性指數(shù)從12.4飆升至35.7。 

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Executives: Prices Don’t Reflect Tight Supply

Oil and gas executives polled by the Dallas Fed in a survey released Wednesday fear recession and supply shortages, with optimism waning this quarter despite solid business activity. 

Oil and gas executives told the Dallas Fed that recession remains a key concern amid heightened uncertainty. 

“It’s tough to tell where these crosscurrents are headed. On one hand, we don’t know if anyone has noticed, but the two-year to 10-year Treasury yield curve is inverted, implying recession,” one executive commented. 

However, the same executive noted, while long-term demand is strong and OPEC continues to underperform, “shale core exhaustion” and inventory concerns remain key issues. 

“Shale will likely tip over in five years, and U.S. production will be down 20 to 30 percent quickly. When it does—this feels like watching the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold,” the executive concluded. 

When asked about expectations of a significant tightening of the oil market by 2024, one executive noted that the market is already tight, suggesting spot market prices are not based on true fundamentals. 

“I struggle to understand why spot oil prices are as low as they are today and why there is still backwardation in the forward curve. It appears to me that the world is very short on supply, with big draws in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inventories still taking place even after a significant increase (and now leveling off) in North American drilling and completion activity,” the executive commented, adding that OPEC has “for the first time ever” acknowledged that there is no spare capacity. 

Overall, the Dallas Fed noted that optimism has waned. While the outlook index posted its 9th consecutive positive reading, the latest reading also reflects a 33-point fall to 33.1, with the overall outlook uncertainty index surging from 12.4 to 35.7.