據(jù)EIA 9月16日消息稱，EIA預(yù)測美國東海岸每月汽油庫存將從7月份的多年低點(diǎn)普遍增長，汽油庫存將在2022年底前增加，并在2023年全年保持高于7月份的低點(diǎn)。

2018年至2021年，美國東海岸的石油生產(chǎn)能力每天下降約40萬桶。雖然從美國海灣海岸到東海岸的石油產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸量高于平均水平，但這些運(yùn)輸量的進(jìn)一步增加受到運(yùn)輸限制的限制。

EIA預(yù)測東美國海岸的汽油庫存已經(jīng)開始從2022年7月的低點(diǎn)開始增長，并且2022年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)，庫存將保持在7月低點(diǎn)以上。從2020年7月到8月，東海岸汽油庫存增加了110萬桶，達(dá)到5180萬桶。我們預(yù)測，2023年1月，東海岸汽油庫存將增至6380萬桶。

未來幾個(gè)月，EIA預(yù)測庫存的增加主要是由于典型的季節(jié)性因素。美國秋季和冬季的汽油消耗量比夏季少，因?yàn)橄募舅緳C(jī)往往出行更多。此外，該國許多地區(qū)使用的汽油的石油成分RBOB的期貨價(jià)格通常在夏季月份交割高于冬季月份交割。RBOB期貨價(jià)格的這種季節(jié)性結(jié)構(gòu)鼓勵(lì)市場參與者在夏季需求旺盛的月份之前，在秋季和冬季建立庫存。

雖然EIA預(yù)測2022年第四季度的庫存將增長，這是本季度的典型情況，但EIA預(yù)測建筑量將高于平均水平，部分原因是EIA預(yù)計(jì)需求將低于平均水平。

東海岸汽油庫存在2023年1月達(dá)到6400萬桶的峰值后，到2023年6月前可能保持在6000萬桶左右。EIA預(yù)測，在2023的7月和8月的需求高峰季節(jié)，庫存將降至5500萬桶左右，預(yù)計(jì)到2023年底，庫存將恢復(fù)到6000萬桶以上。

梁金燕 摘譯自 EIA

原文如下：

EIA forecasts East Coast gasoline inventories will build by the end of 2022

In our September 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast that monthly East Coast gasoline inventories will generally increase from July’s multiyear lows. We forecast gasoline inventories will build by the end of 2022 and remain higher than July's low throughout 2023.

Between 2018 and 2021, the capacity to produce petroleum on the East Coast declined by about 400,000 barrels per day. Although shipments of petroleum products from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast have been higher than average, further increases in these shipments are limited by transportation constraints.

We estimate that East Coast gasoline inventories have already begun to increase from their July 2022 lows, and we forecast that they will remain above July lows for the rest of 2022. We estimate East Coast gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 51.8 million barrels from July to August 2022. We forecast that East Coast gasoline inventories will increase to 63.8 million barrels for January 2023.

Much of the increase in our forecast inventory over the next few months is due to typical seasonal factors. Less gasoline is consumed in the United States in the fall and winter than in the summer, when drivers tend to travel more. In addition, futures prices for RBOB, the petroleum component of gasoline used in many parts of the country, are generally higher for summer-month delivery than for winter-month delivery. This seasonal structure in RBOB futures prices encourages market participants to build inventory in the fall and winter, before the high-demand summer months.

Although our forecast that inventory will grow in the fourth quarter of 2022 is typical of the season, we forecast the build to be above average, in part, because we expect less demand than on average.

East Coast gasoline inventories will likely remain around 60 million barrels until June 2023 after reaching a peak of 64 million barrels in January 2023. We forecast inventories will decrease to around 55 million barrels during the peak driving demand season in July and August 2023. We expect inventories to return to more than 60 million barrels by the end of 2023.