據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)8月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)我們最新的鉆探生產(chǎn)力報(bào)告，EIA估計(jì)，2022年9月，得克薩斯州南部鷹福特地區(qū)的原油日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)120萬(wàn)桶。盡管近期產(chǎn)量有所增加，但鷹福特地區(qū)的原油產(chǎn)量仍低于疫情前（2020年4月為140萬(wàn)桶/天），遠(yuǎn)低于2015年3月170萬(wàn)桶/天的歷史最高水平。

由于價(jià)格上漲，我們估計(jì)，在鷹福特地層中，經(jīng)濟(jì)可采石油資源（生產(chǎn)商認(rèn)為可以盈利生產(chǎn)的可采油的數(shù)量）2022年上半年增加到84億桶，而2020年為5億桶。根據(jù)我們的分析，從2020年到2022年上半年，原油價(jià)格翻了一番還多，激勵(lì)了此前邊緣地區(qū)的未來(lái)發(fā)展。

鷹福特地層的分析重點(diǎn)是探明儲(chǔ)量和經(jīng)濟(jì)可采資源。探明儲(chǔ)量是指在考慮到現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)和運(yùn)行條件的情況下，數(shù)據(jù)能夠以合理的確定性證明未來(lái)幾年可以從已知儲(chǔ)層中開(kāi)采的原油和天然氣數(shù)量。相反，經(jīng)濟(jì)上可回收的資源在很大程度上取決于價(jià)格和成本假設(shè)。經(jīng)濟(jì)上可開(kāi)采的資源是對(duì)未來(lái)原油和天然氣數(shù)量和產(chǎn)量不太確定的估計(jì)。

如果油價(jià)過(guò)低，無(wú)法提供開(kāi)發(fā)油井的投資回報(bào)，生產(chǎn)商就不會(huì)投資鉆井。鷹福特地層同時(shí)生產(chǎn)原油和天然氣，因此其盈利能力不僅取決于過(guò)去的原油或天然氣產(chǎn)量，還取決于生產(chǎn)商對(duì)未來(lái)天然氣和原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Crude oil production in Texas’s Eagle Ford region has been increasing since February 2022

According to our latest Drilling Productivity Report, the EIA estimates that crude oil production in the Eagle Ford region in southern Texas will average 1.2 MMbpd during September 2022. Despite recent increases, less crude oil is being produced in the Eagle Ford region than before the pandemic—1.4 MMbpd in April 2020—and much less than the all-time high of 1.7 MMbpd in March 2015.

Because prices increased, we estimate that economically recoverable oil resources (the amount of recoverable oil that producers believe can be profitably produced) in the Eagle Ford formation, increased to 8.4 billion barrels in the first half of 2022, an increase from 0.5 B barrels in 2020. Between 2020 and the first half of 2022, crude oil prices more than doubled, according to our analysis, incentivizing future development in previously marginal areas.

This analysis of the Eagle Ford formation focuses on proved reserves and economically recoverable resources. Proved reserves are volumes of crude oil and natural gas that data demonstrate with reasonable certainty can be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs, considering existing economic and operating conditions. In contrast, economically recoverable resources vary considerably depending on price and cost assumptions. Economically recoverable resources represent a less certain estimate of future crude oil and natural gas volumes and production.

If prices are too low to provide a return on the investment of developing the well, producers will not invest in drilling the well. The Eagle Ford formation produces both crude oil and natural gas, so profitability is not only based on past crude oil or natural gas production rates but also on producers’ forecasts of future prices for natural gas and crude oil.