據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2022年8月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于發(fā)電廠和工業(yè)用戶尋求緩解天然氣價(jià)格飆升帶來的壓力，全球柴油市場(chǎng)似乎將變得更加緊張。 

由于歐洲不愿購(gòu)買產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的石油，天然氣價(jià)格上漲至前所未有的水平，消費(fèi)者正在尋找天然氣的替代品。同時(shí)，全球柴油庫(kù)存仍處于異常低的水平，而目前的柴油庫(kù)存通常都在擴(kuò)大，為冬季柴油消費(fèi)增加做準(zhǔn)備。

國(guó)際能源署（IEA）本月調(diào)高了對(duì)全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)，原因是預(yù)計(jì)將有更多國(guó)家從天然氣轉(zhuǎn)向這種燃料，而這些國(guó)家將集中在歐洲和中東。上周，美國(guó)原油及成品油出口升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，其中柴油出口領(lǐng)漲。  

對(duì)煉油商來說，這股搶購(gòu)柴油熱潮是件好事，但也會(huì)給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來更大的通脹壓力。

一支載有柴油的油輪船隊(duì)已經(jīng)從中東和亞洲駛往歐洲，歐洲也在努力應(yīng)對(duì)萊茵河淺水區(qū)造成燃料運(yùn)輸?shù)钠茐?。殼牌公司由于低水位削減了德國(guó)最大煉油廠的原油加工量，同時(shí)煉油企業(yè)奧地利油氣集團(tuán)德國(guó)有限公司最近報(bào)告說，其柴油和取暖油供應(yīng)量將減少。 

據(jù)費(fèi)氏全球能源咨詢公司（FGE）稱，歐洲目前面臨每天大約150萬桶的嚴(yán)重柴油短缺，由于消費(fèi)者用石油產(chǎn)品取代天然氣，這一柴油缺口可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大。這家行業(yè)咨詢公司估計(jì)，歐洲生產(chǎn)中間餾分油（包括柴油）的利潤(rùn)率預(yù)計(jì)將在冬季升至每桶70美元的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。歐洲洲際期貨交易所（ICE Futures Europe）公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前歐洲生產(chǎn)中間餾分油利潤(rùn)率在每桶55美元左右。

IEA稱，今年第四季度和明年第一季度，經(jīng)合組織歐洲地區(qū)對(duì)非公路用柴油和燃料油的需求將同比日增22萬桶。相比之下，該地區(qū)去年對(duì)柴油類燃料的需求為每天626萬桶。 

亞洲和美國(guó)的柴油利潤(rùn)也出現(xiàn)上漲，美國(guó)全國(guó)餾分油庫(kù)存處于20多年來的最低水平。美國(guó)中西部最大煉油廠8月25日發(fā)生火災(zāi)，可能導(dǎo)致本已很低的餾分油儲(chǔ)備下降，而此時(shí)該地區(qū)的農(nóng)民正準(zhǔn)備收割成熟莊稼。這些計(jì)劃外的中斷增加了預(yù)定的季節(jié)性維護(hù)，表明美國(guó)可能無法在未來幾個(gè)月維持創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的燃料出口，尤其是在東北部寒冷天氣降臨的時(shí)候。咨詢公司ESAI的分析師琳達(dá)?吉塞克表示，供暖季節(jié)可能會(huì)使美國(guó)東海岸的柴油日消耗量增加40萬桶。

伍德麥肯茲駐新加坡高級(jí)分析師Daphne Ho說，過去兩年全球每天損失300萬桶煉油產(chǎn)能更是雪上加霜。

彭博情報(bào)分析師Horace Chan和Henik Fung在一份報(bào)告中指出，9月至10月期間亞洲各地?zé)捰蛷S的維護(hù)作業(yè)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步收緊市場(chǎng)，并推高利潤(rùn)率。

他們表示：“根據(jù)關(guān)鍵交易中心極低的庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)，這使得柴油短缺的可能性變得特別大?！?/p>

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Diesel Pinch Looms

The global diesel market looks set to get even tighter as power generators and industrial users seek relief from surging natural gas prices.

Consumers are seeking alternatives to gas after prices rallied to unprecedented levels as Europe shuns the larger producer's barrels. It’s also happening as global diesel stockpiles remain unusually low at a time inventories are typically expanding in preparation for a boost in consumption over winter.

The International Energy Agency this month raised its forecast for global oil demand growth on expectations for more fuel-switching from gas, which it said will be concentrated in Europe and the Middle East. US exports of crude and products rose to a record last week, with diesel leading the surge.

The rush for the fuel is a boon for refiners, but will also add more inflationary pressure to the global economy. 

A flotilla of tankers carrying diesel already is steaming from the Middle East and Asia to Europe, which is also grappling with disruptions caused by shallow water on the Rhine. Shell Plc cut production at Germany’s biggest refinery due to the low levels, while refiner OMV Germany GmbH recently reported a run on supplies of diesel and heating oil.

Europe is facing a diesel shortfall of around 1.5 million barrels a day and the deficit could expand as consumers replace natural gas with oil products, according to FGE. The industry consultant estimates profits in Europe from making middle distillates -- which include diesel -- are expected to rally to a record $70 a barrel during winter. Margins are currently around $55, according to ICE Futures Europe data.

Year-on-year demand for non-road gas oil and fuel oil will rise by 220,000 barrels a day in OECD Europe in the fourth and first quarters, according to the IEA. To put that in context, the region’s demand for diesel-type fuels was 6.26 million barrels a day last year.

Diesel profits have also rallied in Asia and the US, where nationwide distillate stockpiles are at the lowest for the time of year in more than two decades. A fire at the largest US Midwest refinery on Thursday threatens to cut already low reserves just as farmers in the region are preparing to harvest. Such unplanned outages add to scheduled seasonal maintenance, indicating the US may not be able to sustain record-high fuel exports in the coming months, especially when cold weather descends in the Northeast. The heating season could boost East Coast diesel use by 400,000 barrels per day, according to Linda Giesecke, an analyst from consultancy ESAI.

According to Daphne Ho, a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. in Singapore. That’s been compounded by the loss of 3 million barrels a day of oil refining capacity over the past two years, she added.

Refinery maintenance across Asia during September and October could further tighten the market and drive profit margins higher, according to a note from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Horace Chan and Henik Fung.

“This makes a diesel crunch particularly likely, based on critically-low inventory data at key trading hubs,” they said.