7月份美國(guó)用于發(fā)電的天然氣消費(fèi)量創(chuàng)下歷史新高，而全球?qū)@種燃燒清潔能源的需求只增不降  

雖然美國(guó)的天然氣價(jià)格沒有接近歐洲的水平，但由于炎熱的夏季和高出口，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格在過去12個(gè)月里上漲了146%  

通常情況下，當(dāng)天然氣價(jià)格飆升時(shí)，公用事業(yè)公司會(huì)發(fā)電轉(zhuǎn)向其他燃料，但當(dāng)時(shí)缺乏燃煤發(fā)電，而且新的可再生能源發(fā)電的速度似乎不夠快

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，今年7月份，美國(guó)用于發(fā)電的天然氣消費(fèi)量創(chuàng)下歷史新高，7月21日達(dá)到637萬兆瓦時(shí)，而此時(shí)立法者正在討論對(duì)可再生能源投資數(shù)十億美元。據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）在一份報(bào)告中稱，造成這一峰值的原因是燃煤發(fā)電量不足。  

值得注意的是，盡管天然氣價(jià)格上漲，但7月份美國(guó)天然氣發(fā)電量仍出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)，這是美國(guó)向能源匱乏的歐洲出口更多液化天然氣的結(jié)果。 

過去12個(gè)月，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格上漲146%，越來越接近每百萬英熱單位10美元。8月31日，近月亨利中心天然氣合約報(bào)收于每百萬英熱單位 9.127美元。 

美國(guó)天然氣發(fā)電量上一次創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄是在2020年夏天，當(dāng)時(shí)天然氣價(jià)格相當(dāng)?shù)?。美?guó)公共電力協(xié)會(huì)的一份報(bào)告指出，當(dāng)天然氣價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，公用事業(yè)公司會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向其他燃料。然而，當(dāng)其他燃料供應(yīng)短缺時(shí)，公用事業(yè)公司似乎被迫繼續(xù)使用天然氣。

EIA的報(bào)告沒有提及美國(guó)風(fēng)能、太陽能和水力發(fā)電，但它指出，由于燃煤發(fā)電廠的持續(xù)退役，今年夏天美國(guó)的燃煤發(fā)電能力將比往年更有限。

與此同時(shí)，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》近日?qǐng)?bào)道稱，由于“在獲得更清潔的替代品方面存在延誤，而且電力需求強(qiáng)勁”，一些美國(guó)公用事業(yè)公司正在推遲燃煤發(fā)電廠的退役，以避免電力供應(yīng)中斷。  

奧馬哈公共電力社區(qū)（OPPD）首席執(zhí)行官哈維爾?費(fèi)爾南德斯向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示：“盡管這是一個(gè)艱難的決定，但有必要維持我們社區(qū)所期待的可靠電力服務(wù)?！?/p>

新的風(fēng)能和太陽能裝置的上網(wǎng)速度似乎不夠快，即使在大規(guī)模建設(shè)的地方，它們也不足以提供可靠的電力服務(wù)，OPPD的費(fèi)爾南德斯如是告訴英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》記者。

事實(shí)上，天然氣發(fā)電在美國(guó)并沒有受到冷落。去年，EIA曾報(bào)告稱，在2022年至2025年期間，美國(guó)計(jì)劃完成27.3吉瓦的天然氣新產(chǎn)能。這意味著2021年的產(chǎn)能增加6%，達(dá)到489.1吉瓦。 

路透社日前報(bào)道說，由于天然氣需求（尤其是來自海外的需求）日益強(qiáng)勁，美國(guó)頁巖油鉆探商似乎對(duì)天然氣的興趣再次升溫。幾年前，由于天然氣極其便宜，他們還準(zhǔn)備以幾乎為零的價(jià)格運(yùn)輸天然氣，而現(xiàn)在，天然氣正變成一種珍貴的商品，產(chǎn)量正在上升。 

9月份美國(guó)天然氣日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到938.4億立方英尺，比去年同期日增大約67.15億立方英尺。 海恩斯維爾盆地頁巖氣產(chǎn)量將增加13.9%，其次是二疊紀(jì)盆地頁巖氣產(chǎn)量增加7%，以及阿帕拉契亞盆地頁巖氣產(chǎn)量增加2.6%。  

由于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的增加和炎熱的夏季，美國(guó)的用電總量預(yù)計(jì)將比去年增長(zhǎng)2.4%。盡管歐洲的天然氣儲(chǔ)備在冬季到來前已經(jīng)基本填滿，但美國(guó)的LNG出口仍可能保持強(qiáng)勁。未來幾個(gè)月，國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)美國(guó)天然氣的需求似乎還會(huì)增加。 

這意味著氣價(jià)還有進(jìn)一步上漲的空間，特別是如果需求高于往常，這取決于天氣情況。好消息是，天然氣和煤炭可以將美國(guó)的停電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降到最低，而歐洲則做不到這一點(diǎn)，因?yàn)槟抢锾烊粴夂兔禾抗?yīng)都很緊張。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Natural Gas Power Generation Hits Record High Despite Soaring Prices

·     U.S. natural gas consumption for power generation hit a record high in July, and demand for the energy source is only growing around the world.

·     While natural gas prices in the U.S. are not near European levels, the U.S. benchmark is up by 146 percent over the past 12 months thanks to a hot summer and high exports.

·     Normally, utilities switch to other sources when natural gas prices soar, but there was a lack of coal generation and it seems new renewable capacity isn’t coming online fast enough.

Natural gas consumption for power generation in the United States hit a record high in July, spiking at 6.37 million megawatt-hours on July 21, just as legislators were discussing billions in investments in renewables. The reason for that spike was not enough coal generation, according to the Energy Information Administration.

It’s interesting to note that the increase in gas-powered electricity generation in July happened despite higher gas prices, themselves the consequence of higher U.S. LNG exports to energy-starved Europe.

U.S. benchmark gas prices are up by 146 percent over the past 12 months, inching closer and closer to $10 per million British thermal units. Yesterday, the front-month Henry Hub contract closed at $9.127 per mmBtu.

The last time gas generation hit a record in the U.S. was the summer of 2020, when gas prices were quite low. When gas prices rise, utilities switch to other fuels, as a report by the American Public Power Association notes. Yet, when other fuels are in short supply, utilities are forced to stick with gas, it seems.

The report makes no mention of wind, solar, and hydro, but it notes that the availability of coal generating capacity this summer was more limited than in previous years because of the ongoing retirement of coal plants.

At the same time, the Financial Times reported this week that some U.S. utilities were delaying the retirement of their coal-fired plants to avoid supply outages because of “delays in obtaining cleaner replacements and strong electricity demand,” per the report.

“While this is a difficult decision, it is necessary to maintain the reliable electricity service our communities have come to expect,” the chief executive of Omaha Public Power District, Javier Fernandez, told the FT.

It seems new wind and solar installations are not coming online fast enough and, even in places with massive build-outs, they are not sufficient to provide the kind of reliable electricity service OPPD’s Fernandez told the FT about.

Indeed, natural gas generation is far from out of favor in the U.S. Last year, the EIA reported there were 27.3 GW of planned new gas capacity to be completed between 2022 and 2025. The additions represent a 6-percent increase to 2021 capacity, which stood at 489.1 GW.

Amid this stronger demand for natural gas, especially from abroad, U.S. shale oil drillers seem to be warming to natural gas once again, Reuters reported this week. While a few years ago they were ready to ship it for next to nothing because it was dirt cheap, now gas is turning into a precious commodity and production is rising.

This month, gas output is seen reaching 93.84 billion cubic feet per day, up by some 6.715 billion cubic feet daily from a year ago. The Haynesville shale will lead with a 13.9-percent increase in production, followed by the Permian, with 7 percent, and Appalachia, where gas output is seen rising by 2.6 percent.

Electricity consumption in the United States is expected to see a 2.4-percent overall increase over 2021 thanks to higher economic activity and a hot summer. Exports will also likely remain strong even though Europe has almost filled up its gas storage caverns ahead of winter. Demand for gas, both domestic and international, appears set for more gains in the coming months.

This means that prices have further to go, especially if demand turns out higher than usual, which depends on the weather. The good news is that between them, natural gas and coal should minimize the risk of power outages in the United States in a way that they can’t in Europe because both gas and coal supply are tight.