據(jù)道瓊斯7月18日消息，由于擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，過去一個(gè)月原油價(jià)格下跌了20美元/桶，這讓人們對(duì)全球石油需求仍大于供應(yīng)的說法產(chǎn)生了一些懷疑。但高盛表示，全球煉油產(chǎn)能下降以及對(duì)主要石油生產(chǎn)商的檢查表明，供應(yīng)緊張確實(shí)存在，而且可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去。該公司在一份研究報(bào)告中表示：“從中期到長(zhǎng)期來看，石油市場(chǎng)將保持緊張，歐佩克（閑置產(chǎn)能低）和美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)有限。然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)給近期前景帶來了波動(dòng)/不確定性?！备呤⑷灶A(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格將走高，即使在最糟糕的情況下，預(yù)計(jì)2023年油價(jià)仍將達(dá)到90至105美元。

龐曉華 摘譯自 道瓊斯

原文如下：

Global Oil Supplies to Stay Tight

A $20 decline in crude-oil prices over the past month amid recession fears is casting some doubt on the argument that global oil demand still outweighs global supply. But Goldman Sachs says a decline in global refining capacity and a check on key producers shows supply tightness indeed exists, and is likely to remain. "In the medium to long term, the oil market is poised to remain tight, with limited growth expected from both OPEC (on low spare capacity) and US shale," the firm says in a research note. "However recession risks brought volatility/uncertainty to the near-term outlook." Goldman still sees Brent trading higher, and even in a worst cast scenario sees $90-$105 into 2023.