? 西方的石油制裁造成了全球原油供應(yīng)的巨大缺口。 

? 美國呼吁沙特阿拉伯提高原油產(chǎn)量，以幫助控制原油價(jià)格。  

? 然而，沙特阿拉伯可能已達(dá)到或接近其原油產(chǎn)能峰值。

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月12日報(bào)道，用之或棄之——這一原則可能適用于沙特阿拉伯的原油生產(chǎn)能力。西方世界現(xiàn)在正盯著沙特阿拉伯，希望沙特阿拉伯增加原油產(chǎn)量來填補(bǔ)禁運(yùn)造成的、與產(chǎn)能大國規(guī)模相當(dāng)?shù)墓?yīng)缺口。然而，正如全球領(lǐng)先的研究型數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)公司Statista的Katharina Buchholz在下面詳細(xì)描述的那樣，沙特阿拉伯在過去三年里只在一個(gè)月內(nèi)原油日產(chǎn)量接近其宣布的1200萬桶的最大產(chǎn)能，這讓人懷疑沙特阿拉伯是否有能力迅速提高原油產(chǎn)量以穩(wěn)定世界市場。據(jù)彭博新聞社報(bào)道，這樣的預(yù)測來自阿聯(lián)酋領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層，阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯是歐佩克成員國中唯一擁有備用產(chǎn)能的兩個(gè)國家——至少在紙面上是這樣。 

美國政要本周將訪問沙特阿拉伯，增加全球原油供應(yīng)將是美國政要此次中東之行的首要議程。 到目前為止，由于地區(qū)爆發(fā)軍事沖突，這個(gè)海灣最大原油生產(chǎn)國及其歐佩克盟友一直不愿做出重大改變。歐佩克堅(jiān)持其緩慢的增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，以扭轉(zhuǎn)3月至6月期間疫情時(shí)期的減產(chǎn)，并在最近同意在未來幾個(gè)月更快地提高產(chǎn)量配額，考慮到世界市場的戲劇性發(fā)展。沙特阿拉伯在歐佩克今年8月的原油日產(chǎn)量配額為1100萬桶，比很長一段時(shí)間以來的原油日產(chǎn)量都要多，但仍然比該國難以捉摸的最大原油日產(chǎn)量配額低整整100萬桶。

歐佩克公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在疫情暴發(fā)之前，沙特阿拉伯的原油產(chǎn)量一直低于其產(chǎn)量配額，只有在與產(chǎn)能大國發(fā)生價(jià)格戰(zhàn)以后，沙特阿拉伯原油產(chǎn)量在2020年4月接近其宣布的最大產(chǎn)能，從而導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量配額被取消。在接下來的幾個(gè)月里，沙特阿拉伯宣布退出，自愿接受比對手更低的原油產(chǎn)量配額。 

如果沙特阿拉伯能夠增加原油產(chǎn)量，他們可能也不想增產(chǎn)。 

如果再發(fā)生一次原油供應(yīng)中斷，就像最近歐佩克產(chǎn)油國因政治動蕩而發(fā)生的原油供應(yīng)中斷那樣，這將把全球原油產(chǎn)量推至可能的邊緣，就會帶來內(nèi)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。由于這種破壞根本無法得到補(bǔ)償，它可能會導(dǎo)致油價(jià)更劇烈的飆升。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Has Saudi Arabia Reached Peak Oil Capacity?

·     Western sanctions  have left a massive gap in global oil supplies.

·     The United States has called on Saudi Arabia to ramp up production to help keep prices under control.

·     Saudi Arabia may, however, be at or near its oil production capacity. 

Use it or lose it – this principle might apply to Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity that is now eyed by the Western world to fill the bigger producer-sized gap in supply left behind by embargoes. However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, Saudi Arabia in the past three years only approached its declared maximum production capacity of 12 million barrels per day in one month, casting doubts on the kingdom’s ability to quickly up its production to stabilize world markets. According to Bloomberg, such predictions have come from UAE leadership, who together with the Saudis are the only OPEC members who have spare production capacity – at least on paper.

The Gov is traveling to Saudi Arabia this week and the increase of the global oil supply will be on the top of the agenda for the U.S. Up until now, the Gulf kingdom and its OPEC allies have been reluctant to make major changes as a result of the war. OPEC stuck to its slow production increases that were scheduled to reverse Covid-era cuts between March and June, and only recently agreed to up production quotas faster in the coming months in the light of the dramatic world market developments. Saudi Arabia’s OPEC production quota for August 2022 stands at 11 million barrels a day – more than it has been in a long time and still a whole million barrels a day below the country’s elusive maximum quota. 

As seen in data by the organization, Saudi Arabia has remained below its production quota prior to the Covid-19 epidemic and only once approached its declared maximum production capacity in April 2020 amidst a row with it that saw production quotas go out the window. The following months, the kingdom stood down, accepting lower production quotas than its rival on a voluntary basis.

If the Saudis can in fact produce more, they might also not want to.

Driving oil production to the edge of what is possible globally holds an inherent risk should another disruption, like it happened recently in one member of OPEC due to political unrest, should occur. Since that disruption can then not be compensated at all, it could cause an even more drastic jump in oil prices.