由于全球庫存處于歷史低點，柴油和汽油市場正在經(jīng)歷每桶50-60美元的價差  

由于世界各地取消與疫情相關(guān)的最后限制措施，全球石油需求復蘇看起來有彈性  

在過去10年里，歐洲和美國的煉油產(chǎn)能都大幅下降，這使得更換低庫存變得尤為困難 

據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)6月20日報道，目前，全球柴油和汽油市場的價差“突飆”已經(jīng)達到每桶50-60美元的水平，這表明煉油系統(tǒng)在決定供應柴油還是汽油方面存在明顯的滯后。造成這種不穩(wěn)定局面的原因是，全球庫存處于歷史最低水平，因此無法提供必要的緩沖手段。

挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司發(fā)表的研究報告顯示，由于面臨運營中斷和產(chǎn)品遏制的挑戰(zhàn)，大國煉油業(yè)務的損失導致歐洲柴油/汽油缺口每天超過100萬桶，這個問題很不容易解決。 

分析主管Per Magnus Nysveen說，柴油是全球經(jīng)濟的命脈，對農(nóng)業(yè)、建筑和運輸?shù)戎匾袠I(yè)至關(guān)重要，其價格幾乎影響所有的供應鏈和商品。各國政府面臨著艱難的抉擇。雖然可以通過降低柴油稅來幫助消費者，它可以支持整體經(jīng)濟，但反而會使供應緊張的局面進一步惡化。如果供應沒有改善，各國政府將被迫制定緊急計劃，限制對消費者的銷售，以確保關(guān)鍵行業(yè)的持續(xù)發(fā)展。 

在需求方面，由于正在取消與疫情相關(guān)的剩余限制措施，復蘇是有彈性的。美國疾病控制和預防中心取消了入境航班所有新冠病毒檢測要求的最新指南就是這樣一個明確的指標。在供應方面，地緣政治沖突中斷了歐洲市場的石油產(chǎn)品和原油供應，而世界其他地區(qū)的應對方式有限。

按地區(qū)劃分的煉油廠 

原油供應的減少阻礙了不斷萎縮的歐洲煉油行業(yè)以高利用率運行的能力，并加速了歐洲煉油業(yè)產(chǎn)能的下滑趨勢。自2005年達到1750萬桶的煉油日產(chǎn)能峰值以來，歐洲煉油日產(chǎn)能已減少200萬桶。美國也出現(xiàn)類似的趨勢，在過去的3-4年里，美國的煉油日產(chǎn)能下降了100萬至150萬桶。逐步淘汰氫氟酸（HF）烷基化技術(shù)的舉措以及進口減壓柴油（VGO）/渣油的可獲得性降低，削弱了美國煉油行業(yè)提高汽油產(chǎn)量的能力。

總的來說，煉油成本隨著天然氣、氫氣和公用事業(yè)成本的上漲而上漲。因此，由于需求的恢復，煉油系統(tǒng)受到限制，導致大多數(shù)國家的供應覆蓋天數(shù)不穩(wěn)定地下降。許多國家要求提高庫存覆蓋天數(shù)，這使得通過貿(mào)易流動解決地區(qū)產(chǎn)品失衡問題變得非常困難。

為了滿足不斷增長的需求，從今年6月到8月，煉油日產(chǎn)能將需要增加460萬桶，而目前的預測為330萬桶。由于總運行次數(shù)的增加有限，柴油與汽油的二級優(yōu)化并沒有提供太多的幫助。柴油/航空燃料被追求最大化，間接增加了汽油裂解的價差。 

亞洲的石化-芳香族系統(tǒng)也沒有在最高水平運行，因為與疫情相關(guān)的需求已經(jīng)減弱。這反映在亞洲石腦油裂解的持續(xù)減弱。因此，額外的汽油混合芳香成分不太可能增加汽油供應。強勁的超低硫燃料油(VLSFO)裂解也可能使更多的超低硫燃料油/殘渣難以釋放用于流化催化裂化(FCC)。 

汽油價格的暫時收縮

考慮到上述指標，雷斯塔認為，日前美國汽油價格的輕微收縮只是暫時的，未來的上漲是可以預期的。美國汽油庫存水平繼續(xù)下降，從地緣政治爆發(fā)沖突之初的2.46億桶下降到目前的2.17億桶。由于全球柴油庫存處于較低水平，柴油裂解價差在未來一段時間也不太可能緩解。 

可能的出路 

提高輕中質(zhì)含硫品質(zhì)原油供應來最大限度地提高桶底升級將會產(chǎn)生顯著的影響。美國政府額外釋放4500萬桶以輕質(zhì)低硫原油為主的原油儲備是一個積極的信號。歐佩克未能完成其產(chǎn)量目標，但美國即將訪問沙特阿拉伯是一個關(guān)鍵的觀察指標。亞洲/和中東的煉油業(yè)務超出了當?shù)匦枨?，這將在一定程度上緩解美國和歐盟的石油產(chǎn)品油短缺。

大國煉油和石油產(chǎn)品出口的損失不會輕易被世界其他國家彌補。高企的柴油價格將推動全球惡性通脹，并可能導致GDP收縮。需求破壞可能導致經(jīng)濟衰退，但這對消費者來說將是一個痛苦的經(jīng)歷。無論如何，在北半球的夏季，汽油和柴油的裂解價差預計將繼續(xù)保持強勁。許多人希望從今年8月和9月開始出現(xiàn)溫和的調(diào)整，但很多事情取決于對該國的制裁在年底前如何生效。

煉油行業(yè)目前就像一個沒有打氣筒的泄氣的自行車輪胎——擠壓輪胎的一側(cè)以生產(chǎn)更多的柴油或航空燃料，將導致汽油供應惡化，反之亦然。對于運行的煉油廠來說，這是一個巨大的財源，能產(chǎn)生驚人的利潤。難怪美國曾呼吁，在戰(zhàn)爭期間，煉油廠遠高于正常水平的利潤是不可接受的，煉油廠需要采取更多措施來緩解供應緊張的問題。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Can The Global Gasoline And Diesel Crisis Be Solved?

Diesel and gasoline markets are witnessing crack spreads in the $50-$60 per barrel range due to inventory stocks across the world being at record lows.

The global oil demand recovery looks resilient as the final Covid-related restrictions are being removed around the world.

Refining capacity in both Europe and the U.S. has fallen dramatically in the last decade, making the replacement of low inventories particularly difficult.

Global diesel and gasoline markets are witnessing blowout crack spreads in the US$50-60 per barrel (bbl) range, reflecting a clear lag in the refining system to respond effectively and decide between supplying diesel or gasoline. The precarious situation is driven by inventory stocks across the globe being at their lowest levels historically and, therefore, unable to provide the necessary shock absorbers. The loss of refining owing to operational outages and product containment challenges has caused a diesel/gasoline hole greater than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Europe that is not easy to plug, Rystad Energy research shows.

“Diesel is the lifeblood of the global economy, essential to vital sectors such as agriculture, construction, and transportation - its price impacts almost all supply chains and goods. Governments face tough decisions. They can assist consumers by dropping taxes on diesel, but this will likely only increase demand, which may support the overall economy but will worsen the existing tight supply situation. If supply does not improve, governments will be forced to enact emergency plans to limit sales to consumers in order to ensure essential sectors are kept going,” says Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy.

On the demand side, the recovery is resilient as residual Covid-related restrictions are being removed. The latest guidelines from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to remove all Covid testing requirements for incoming flights is one such clear indicator. On the supply side, the war has disrupted product flows and crude flows to the European market at a time when the rest of the world has limited ways in which to respond.

Refineries by region

The loss of crude supply has hindered the shrinking European refining sector’s ability to run at high utilization rates and has accelerated a downward trend in Europe which has lost 2 million bpd of crude refining since peak capacity of 17.5 million bpd in 2005. The US has been following a similar trend, losing between 1 million and 1.5 million bpd of refining capacity in the last 3-4 years. The move to phase out Hydrofluoric Acid (HF) Alkylation technology and lower availability of imported vacuum gas oil (VGO)/residues has dented the US refining sector’s ability to increase gasoline production.

Outside the European Union and the US, refinery capacity has been growing primarily to meet rising domestic demand. However, the pandemic has severely impacted the pace of additions with many Middle Eastern, African, and Asian refinery projects reporting delays owing to supply chain and resource issues. Recent news that Nigeria Dangote Refinery is unable to secure a commissioning team is a case in point. Latin American refining was already in decline prior to the pandemic and does not have much to offer, let alone meet domestic product supply.

Overall, the cost of refining has gone up alongside inflated gas, hydrogen, and utility costs. Thus, a constrained refining system as demand has recovered has resulted in precariously lower days of supply cover in most countries. Many have mandated higher days of stock cover making it hard to solve regional product imbalances with trade flows.

To meet rising demand, refining runs will need to increase by 4.6 million bpd from June to August 2022, compared to current projections of 3.3 million bpd. With a limited increase in overall runs, the second-order lever of diesel versus gasoline optimization does not have much to offer. Diesel/jet fuel maximization is being pursued and indirectly fueling gasoline crack spreads.

Asia’s petchem-aromatic system is not operating at its highest level either as pandemic-related demand has waned. This is reflected in the continued weakening of naphtha cracks in Asia. Therefore, additional gasoline blending aromatic components are unlikely to be available to bump up gasoline supply. Strong very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) cracks are also possibly making it harder for more VGO/residue to be diverted for fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC).

A temporary reprieve

Given the above indicators, Rystad Energy believes that gasoline’s slight contraction this week is only temporary and further upward movement can be expected. US gasoline stock levels continue their downward trend, from 246 million barrels at the beginning of the war to 217 million barrels presently. Diesel cracks are also unlikely to soften ahead with stocks across the globe at lower levels.

Potential pathways out of this

Higher crude supply of the right medium-sour quality to maximize bottom-of-barrel upgradation would make a significant difference. The US government’s release of 45 million additional barrels of predominantly light sweet crude is a positive signal. OPEC is falling behind on its targets but the upcoming visit of US to Saudi Arabia is a key signpost to watch. Asian and Middle Eastern refining runs in excess of domestic demand will offer some respite to plug shortages in the US and the EU. 

The loss of refining and product exports is not going to be plugged easily by the rest of the world. High diesel prices will drive hyperinflation globally and point towards a possible contraction in GDP. Demand destruction may lead to a recession and restore balance, but this will be a painful experience for consumers. Regardless, gasoline and diesel cracks are expected to continue to stay strong during the northern hemisphere’s summer. Many will be hoping for a moderate correction from August and September 2022 onwards, but a lot rests on how sanctions take effect towards year-end.

Refining is currently resembling a deflated bike tire without a pump - squeezing one side to make more diesel or jet fuel will cause the gasoline supply to worsen and vice-versa. For operating refineries, it is a bonanza, generating fantastic profits. No wonder then that US has issued a call that refinery profits well above normal are unacceptable and that refineries need to do more to ease supply.