能源咨詢調(diào)查顯示，歐佩克+5月份再次未能實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量目標

今年4月份，僅歐佩克就平均日減270萬桶原油產(chǎn)量，未達目標  

安哥拉、赤道幾內(nèi)亞和剛果5月份的原油產(chǎn)量也遠低于配額  

據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)6月10日報道，能源咨詢的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，由于許多歐佩克成員國的原油產(chǎn)量持續(xù)下降，5月份歐佩克+再次未能達到其原油產(chǎn)量目標。

4月份，僅歐佩克就每日減產(chǎn)270萬桶，盡管5月份原油產(chǎn)量略有改善，但原油總產(chǎn)量仍遠低于配額。Herman指出，5月份，尼日利亞的原油產(chǎn)量降至歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量以來的最低水平。安哥拉、赤道幾內(nèi)亞和剛果5月份的原油產(chǎn)量也遠低于配額，大多數(shù)歐佩克+聯(lián)盟成員國的原油產(chǎn)量也低于協(xié)議。大國的原油產(chǎn)量在4月份下降后，5月份實際上有所上升。  

歐佩克+日前同意在7月和8月日增64.8萬桶原油產(chǎn)量，而不是最初商定的日增43.2萬桶原油產(chǎn)量。一些觀察人士認為這意味著西方外交的成功，但市場的反應乍一看可能是違反直覺的，在增產(chǎn)聲明宣布后，原油價格實際有所上漲了。 

事實上，許多歐佩克成員國一直在努力完成他們最初的生產(chǎn)配額，這不是什么秘密。只有沙特、阿聯(lián)酋和科威特擁有可以迅速利用的備用產(chǎn)能來彌補短缺。然而，他們可能不愿意這樣做，因為更多的備用產(chǎn)能被消耗意味著當停產(chǎn)發(fā)生時剩余的備用產(chǎn)能就更少了。 

據(jù)路透社轉(zhuǎn)引摩根大通分析師本周的一份報告：“我們預計7月份歐佩克+原油產(chǎn)量將日增大約16萬桶，8月將日增大約17萬桶。”

所有這些都表明，正如英國《金融時報》的戴維?謝潑德最近在一篇專欄文章中指出的那樣，世界可能需要為油價進一步上漲做好準備。  

謝潑德說：“所有這些因素都表明，油價會不斷上漲，直到達到降低消費的水平，可能是通過引發(fā)足以抑制需求的經(jīng)濟放緩。換句話說，對許多經(jīng)濟體來說，這實際上是一場衰退。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Fails To Meet Output Target once Again

Survey shows that OPEC+ missed its production target again in May.

In April, OPEC alone missed its target by 2.7 million barrels daily.

Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Congo also produced well below quotas in May.

OPEC+ once again fell short of its oil production targets in May on continued production declines in many OPEC members, a survey showed, as cited by OPEC and Middle East managing editor Herman Wang.

In April, OPEC alone missed its target by 2.7 million barrels daily, and while there was a slight improvement in May, the total was still well below quotas. Last month, production in Nigeria dropped to the lowest since it has been surveying OPEC output, Wang noted.

Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Congo also produced well below quotas last month, and most of the OPEC+ partners also produced less than agreed. the world's largest oil producer's production actually inched up in May after falling in April.

OPEC+ agreed last week to boost production in July and August by 648,000 bpd instead of the originally agreed 432,000 bpd. Some observers took that to mean success for Western diplomacy, but the market reacted in what was perhaps a counterintuitive, at first glance, way, with prices actually rising after the announcement.

Indeed, many OPEC members have been struggling to fulfill their original production quotas, and that has been no secret. only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have spare capacity that can be quickly tapped to make up for shortfalls. However, they may be reluctant to do that as more spare capacity being tapped means less spare capacity left for when an outage happens.

"With only a handful of ... OPEC+ participants with spare capacity, we expect the increase in OPEC+ output to be about 160,000 barrels per day in July and 170,000 bpd in August," JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note, as cited by Reuters, this week.

What all this suggests is that, as the FT's David Sheppard noted in a recent column, the world may need to brace up for even higher oil prices.

Sheppard wrote. "All these factors point to rising oil prices until a level is reached that reduces consumption, probably by triggering an economic slowdown large enough to curtail demand. In other words, a recession for many economies."