據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)6月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)歐佩克代表和業(yè)內(nèi)消息人士稱，由于原油和燃料價(jià)格飆升有助于推高通脹，并拖累全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)將在2023年放緩。

燃料使用量已從2020年疫情引發(fā)的衰退中反彈，即使價(jià)格創(chuàng)下歷史新高，今年仍將超過(guò)2019年的水平。但高價(jià)格已經(jīng)影響了2022年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，也加劇了2023年增長(zhǎng)放緩的預(yù)期。

預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克將于7月發(fā)布2023年的首次需求預(yù)測(cè)。該組織以及總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署的預(yù)測(cè)將受到密切關(guān)注，以尋找歐佩克供應(yīng)政策將如何發(fā)展的方針。

一名歐佩克代表和另一位熟悉歐佩克想法的消息人士表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球需求增長(zhǎng)不超過(guò)200萬(wàn)桶/天，僅增長(zhǎng)2%，而2022年預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)336萬(wàn)桶/天。

這位代表在談到明年的前景時(shí)表示，即使只有100萬(wàn)桶/天，那也仍然是增長(zhǎng)，而不是峰值。

一位歐佩克消息人士表示，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克將于7月12日在月度報(bào)告中公布2023年的首次需求預(yù)測(cè)。

IEA發(fā)言人表示，為西方政府提供能源政策建議的IEA將于周三在月度報(bào)告中給出其首次2023年需求預(yù)測(cè)。

歐佩克正在觀察高油價(jià)將導(dǎo)致石油需求破壞的跡象。

另有兩名歐佩克代表表示，需求下降可能會(huì)對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的石油使用造成影響，不過(guò)其中一名代表表示，美國(guó)目前還沒(méi)有這種跡象，稱其援引了近期的汽油需求數(shù)據(jù)。

一家不隸屬于IEA或歐佩克的貿(mào)易公司的資深業(yè)內(nèi)人士也表示，他預(yù)計(jì)2023年的需求增長(zhǎng)將有所下降，并表示他的初步估計(jì)表明，需求將從2022年的260萬(wàn)桶/日增長(zhǎng)率下降到200萬(wàn)桶/日或更少。

他稱，每桶120美元的原油價(jià)格正在破壞需求。這已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。

考慮到經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的變化和地緣政治的不確定性，石油需求預(yù)測(cè)者往往不得不做出相當(dāng)大的修正。

歐佩克在2021年7月發(fā)布的首次預(yù)測(cè)中預(yù)測(cè)2022年的需求增長(zhǎng)為328萬(wàn)桶/日，后來(lái)將其上調(diào)至400萬(wàn)桶/日以上，然后將其下調(diào)至336萬(wàn)桶/日。

郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Opec sees global oil demand growth slowing in 2023

World oil demand growth will slow in 2023, Opec delegates and industry sources said, as surging crude and fuel prices help drive up inflation and act as a drag on the global economy.

Fuel use has rebounded from the 2020 pandemic-induced slump and is set to exceed 2019 levels this year even as prices hit record highs. But high prices have eaten into growth projections for 2022 and fed into expectations for slower growth in 2023.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to publish its first forecast for 2023 demand in July. Its forecast, along with that of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, will be watched closely for pointers on how Opec supply policy might develop.

An Opec delegate and another source familiar with Opec thinking said they expected world demand growth of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) or less in 2023, a rise of just 2 per cent, compared with growth of 3.36 million bpd expected in 2022.

"Even if it is only 1 million bpd, that is still growth and not a peak," the delegate said of the outlook for next year.

Opec is expected to publish its first demand forecast for 2023 in its monthly report on July 12, an Opec source said.

The IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, will give its first 2023 demand forecast in a monthly report on Wednesday, an IEA spokesperson said.

Opec is watching for signs that high fuel prices will lead to oil demand destruction.

Two more Opec delegates said demand destruction is likely to take a toll on oil use in coming months, although one of them said there was little sign of it yet in the United States, citing recent gasoline demand data.

A senior industry source at a trading firm, not affiliated to the IEA or Opec, also said he expected lower demand growth in 2023, saying his initial estimates pointed to demand growing by 2 million bpd or less, down from 2.6 million bpd growth in 2022。

"Crude at $120 a barrel is causing demand destruction," he said. "It is already happening."

Oil demand forecasters often have to make sizeable revisions given changes in the economic outlook and geopolitical uncertainties.

Opec originally forecast demand growth in 2022 of 3.28 million bpd, in its first forecast published in July 2021, later raising it up to more than 4 million bpd before cutting it to 3.36 million bpd.