據(jù)美國彭博新聞社報(bào)道，在這個(gè)迫切需要更多石油的世界，位于美國西得克薩斯州和新墨西哥州東南部塵土飛揚(yáng)的地區(qū)是可以提供更多石油的地方之一。但即便原油價(jià)格每桶超過100美元，二疊紀(jì)盆地和美國其他頁巖盆地的生產(chǎn)商仍在踩剎車。

在過去十年的大部分時(shí)間里，美國二疊紀(jì)盆地是一部無法停止的鉆井機(jī)器。二疊紀(jì)盆地龐大、低成本的石油儲量，幫助美國轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槭澜缟吓e足輕重的石油供應(yīng)國，一旦油價(jià)飆升，美國石油生產(chǎn)商就會增加產(chǎn)量；一旦油價(jià)暴跌，他們就會停止生產(chǎn)。由于頁巖生產(chǎn)商積累了大量幾周內(nèi)就能開發(fā)的井，原油價(jià)格上漲肯定會引發(fā)水力壓裂熱潮，這將有助于補(bǔ)充全球庫存，為油價(jià)降溫。

但這次不是。

爆發(fā)軍事沖突以后，原油價(jià)格飆升至13年來的最高水平。美國每個(gè)州的汽油價(jià)格第一次超過了每加侖4美元。4月份，紐約的航空煤油價(jià)格創(chuàng)下新高。然而，美國的頁巖勘探商們并沒有表現(xiàn)出要出手相助的跡象。他們的業(yè)務(wù)模式已經(jīng)發(fā)生了根本變化，在抑制增長、通過派息和回購將現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移給投資者的壓力下，他們的業(yè)務(wù)模式被重塑。通貨膨脹也造成了損失。預(yù)計(jì)今年美國石油產(chǎn)量的增幅將不到2018年的一半，當(dāng)時(shí)原油價(jià)格每桶約為65美元。 這對消費(fèi)者來說意味著更多痛苦，摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)，到今年8月份，美國汽油價(jià)格將達(dá)到每加侖6.20美元。

標(biāo)普全球北美上游油氣業(yè)務(wù)副總裁拉烏爾·勒布朗表示：“美國石油和天然氣供應(yīng)體系仍然非常強(qiáng)大，但在任何給定價(jià)格下，石油產(chǎn)量增長都將放緩。”“如果沒有頁巖股東提供的補(bǔ)貼，消費(fèi)者可能預(yù)計(jì)將支付更高的價(jià)格。”

生產(chǎn)美國一半以上原油的上市獨(dú)立石油公司現(xiàn)在把大約三分之一的現(xiàn)金流返還給投資者。根據(jù)公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，這意味著頁巖需要一個(gè)新的價(jià)格下限，從以前的每桶40美元-50美元提高到60美元-70美元，才能在美國主要石油遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)進(jìn)行廣泛的鉆探作業(yè)。把股東利益置于生產(chǎn)之上的壓力，是石油行業(yè)在疫情暴發(fā)前不惜一切代價(jià)增長模式的直接結(jié)果。德勤會計(jì)師事務(wù)所稱，這種增長模式在過去十年導(dǎo)致近3000億美元的現(xiàn)金消耗。預(yù)測人士表示，盡管今年頁巖產(chǎn)量會上升以及原油價(jià)格會上漲，但戰(zhàn)爭影響的石油產(chǎn)量額外增長將微乎其微。

根據(jù)標(biāo)普全球、雷斯塔能源公司、彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)、Enverus和美國能源信息署這五大預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)的平均值，美國今年的原油產(chǎn)量將日增大約90萬桶。相比之下，2018年日增190萬桶。今年的增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃是在爆發(fā)軍事沖突之前制定的，分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，明年美國原油的日增產(chǎn)幅度僅為大約80萬桶，最終將使美國的原油產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。在油田方面，運(yùn)營商說預(yù)測者目前的估計(jì)甚至可能過于樂觀。與此同時(shí)，幾個(gè)歐佩克產(chǎn)油國正在努力完成產(chǎn)量配額，導(dǎo)致全球原油市場日益吃緊。

華爾街并不是頁巖陣痛期的唯一來源。研究和數(shù)據(jù)公司Enverus公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球供應(yīng)鏈危機(jī)在美國二疊紀(jì)盆地尤為嚴(yán)重，二疊紀(jì)盆地將占美國今年產(chǎn)量增長的80%。  

二疊紀(jì)盆地鉆井公司Surge能源公司首席執(zhí)行官關(guān)林華（音譯）在接受采訪時(shí)說，設(shè)備供應(yīng)中斷意味著，如果一家公司想要增加產(chǎn)量，現(xiàn)在從鉆井到用泵抽油需要一年或更長的時(shí)間，而在疫情暴發(fā)前只需要三到四個(gè)月的時(shí)間。預(yù)計(jì)今年的成本膨脹率將達(dá)到16%，并說明年還會增加。因此，Surge能源公司預(yù)計(jì)今年的產(chǎn)量年增長率為12%，低于截至今年第一季度的前12個(gè)月的29%。 

二疊紀(jì)盆地生產(chǎn)商UpCurve能源公司業(yè)務(wù)副總裁Dena Demboski說，有助于穩(wěn)定井襯里的套管的成本比平時(shí)高出三倍，而完成訂單交貨期要更長時(shí)間。二疊紀(jì)盆地大型鉆井公司先鋒自然資源公司預(yù)計(jì)，明年新鉆機(jī)合同的成本差不多將上漲40%。

活躍在二疊紀(jì)米德蘭盆地的生產(chǎn)商火鳥能源公司首席執(zhí)行官特拉維斯·湯普森表示：“無論是管子還是沙子，我們都很難獲得所需的一些關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)品。”“如果我們想要增加鉆井活動，比如從3部鉆機(jī)增加到4部或5部鉆機(jī)，我們肯定需要制定比過去1、2年更長遠(yuǎn)的鉆井計(jì)劃?！?/p>

從2012年到2019年，美國的石油產(chǎn)量平均日增705萬桶。歐佩克多次試圖通過放任油價(jià)下跌來排擠頁巖生產(chǎn)商，但都以失敗告終。然而，美國的頁巖現(xiàn)在幾乎沒有希望取代估計(jì)每天200萬至300萬桶的產(chǎn)量，這些產(chǎn)量要么由于制裁而被關(guān)閉，要么被認(rèn)為是不可交易的。

Enverus高級副總裁阿爾·薩拉薩爾表示：“大國的生產(chǎn)供應(yīng)缺口太大，美國頁巖無法單獨(dú)填補(bǔ)。”今年，油田的“限產(chǎn)和生產(chǎn)商紀(jì)律限制頁巖冷卻油價(jià)的能力”。  

石油和汽油價(jià)格的飆升推動美國通脹率升至幾十年來的最高水平，越來越明顯的是，頁巖不再是遏制油價(jià)飆升的靈丹妙藥。美國似乎已放棄鼓勵(lì)美國石油公司提高產(chǎn)量的公眾呼吁，這是政府今年早些時(shí)候關(guān)注的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)。據(jù)知情人士透露，拜登目前正在考慮與沙特王儲會面。  

先鋒自然資源公司首席執(zhí)行官斯科特·謝菲爾德日前在得克薩斯州哈特能源公司舉辦的DUG二疊紀(jì)會議上表示：“二疊紀(jì)盆地將提供幫助?！?但是“二疊紀(jì)盆地能拯救世界嗎”?

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

World's Oil Growth Engine Is about to Slow

In a world crying out for more oil, a dusty stretch of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is one of the only places that can deliver. But even with crude above $100 a barrel, producers in the Permian and other US shale basins are riding the brakes. 

For most of the past decade, the Permian was an unstoppable drilling machine. Its vast, low-cost reserves helped transform the US into the world’s swing oil supplier, primed to turbocharge output as soon as prices soared or to halt when they collapsed. Because shale producers amassed a backlog of wells that could be tapped in just a few weeks, a crude rally was sure to incite a fracking frenzy that would help replenish global stockpiles and cool off prices.

But not this time.

After the war in late February, crude prices surged to a 13-year high. Gasoline is above $4 a gallon in every US state for the first time.

Jet fuel in New York spiked to a record last month. Yet shale explorers show no sign of riding to the rescue. Their business model has fundamentally changed, reshaped by pressure to curb growth and divert cash to investors with dividends and buybacks. Inflation is also taking a toll. US oil output this year is expected to expand by less than half the amount it did in 2018, when crude traded around $65. That means more pain for consumers, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicting US gasoline at $6.20 a gallon by August.

“The US oil and gas supply system remains very potent, but at any given price, growth will be smaller and slower,” said Raoul LeBlanc, vice president for North American upstream oil and gas at S&P Global. “Without the subsidy that shale shareholders provided, consumers can expect to pay higher prices.”

Publicly traded independent oil companies, which produce more than half of U.S. crude, are now giving about a third of their cash flow back to investors. This means shale needs a new pricing floor of about $60 to $70 a barrel, up from $40 to $50 a barrel previously, to enable drilling broadly across the major U.S. oil plays, according to S&P Global. The pressure to prioritize shareholders over production is a direct result of the industry’s pre-pandemic, grow-at-any-cost model that,  according to Deloitte LLP, led to nearly $300 billion of cash burn over the previous decade. Though shale output will rise this year, forecasters says there's minimal additional growth coming as a result of the war, despite the rally in crude prices. 

The US will add about 900,000 barrels a day of oil production this year, according to the average of five major forecasters: S&P Global, Rystad Energy, BloombergNEF, Enverus and the US Energy Information Administration. That compares with 1.9 million a day in 2018. This year’s growth was planned before the war, and analysts only see a modest increase of about 800,000 barrels a day next year, which would finally bring US output to pre-pandemic levels. In the field, operators say forecasters’ current estimates may even be too optimistic. Several OPEC producers, meanwhile, are struggling to fill their output quotas, leaving the global crude market increasingly tight.

Wall Street isn’t the only source of shale’s growing pains. The global supply-chain crisis is particularly acute in the Permian Basin, which will make up 80% of this year’s US production growth, according to research and data firm Enverus.

Disruptions to equipment supplies mean if a company wants to increase production, it would now take a year or more between drilling to pumping oil, up from three to four months before the pandemic, Linhua Guan, CEO of Permian driller Surge Energy, said in an interview. Guan planned for 16% cost inflation this year and says that will increase next year. As a result, Surge expects a 12% annual production growth rate this  year, down from 29% in the 12 months through the first quarter. Even so, Guan expected the U.S. 

The cost of casing, a lining that helps to stabilize wells, is three times higher than usual and lead times to fill orders are much longer, said Dena Demboski, vice president of operations at Permian producer UpCurve Energy LLC. “Rig rates are higher than I've ever seen them” at more than $30,000 a day, she said. Pioneer Natural Resources Co., a major Permian driller, expects the cost of contracts for new rigs to rise as much as 40% next year. 

“It's just more difficult to get some of the key products that we need, whether that's pipe or sand,” said Travis Thompson, CEO of FireBird Energy LLC, a producer active in the Permian’s Midland Basin. “If we wanted to increase activity, say from three rigs to four or five, we would certainly have to plan on that a lot further out than what you would have had to a year or two back.”

America’s oil production increased by 7.05 million barrels a day from 2012 to 2019, adding new output equivalent to Iran and Iraq combined in just eight years. OPEC failed in its multiple attempts to sideline shale producers by allowing prices to crater. And yet U.S. shale now has little hope of replacing the estimated 2 million to 3 million barrels a day from the largest oil producer that are either shut-in or deemed untradeable because of sanctions. 

“The the largest oil producer's production supply gap is too big for shale to fill in alone,” said Al Salazar, senior vice president of Enverus. Oil field “constraints and producer discipline limit shale’s ability to cool prices” this year.

The jump in oil and gasoline prices has helped drive US inflation to the highest levels in decades, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that shale is no longer the silver bullet to counter skyrocketing crude prices. President appears to have abandoned public calls to encourage US drillers to boost production, a key focus for his administration earlier in this year. He’s now considering a meeting with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to people familiar with the matter. 

“The Permian is going to be there to help,” Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said at Hart Energy's DUG Permian conference in Texas last week. But “is that going to save the world? Not with what happened” in Ukraine, he said.