? 由于美國國內(nèi)庫存非常緊張和全球供應(yīng)短缺，柴油價格創(chuàng)下歷史新高。  

? 由于需求激增，以及軍事沖突導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)下降，這兩種因素對柴油市場造成沉重打擊。  

? 不僅美國柴油價格處于歷史高位，而且柴油與汽油價格的差距也達到歷史最高水平。

據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)5月10日報道，美國40年來的最高通貨膨脹率將持續(xù)，甚至在未來幾個月還會上升，由于美國國內(nèi)庫存非常緊張和全球供應(yīng)短缺，美國的柴油價格正處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位。從貨物運輸?shù)街圃鞓I(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)，柴油被用于工業(yè)活動和供應(yīng)鏈的每個部分；柴油推動了美國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。近幾個月來，柴油價格飆升至紀(jì)錄高位，進一步加大美國通貨膨脹數(shù)據(jù)的上行壓力?？紤]到疫情結(jié)束后工業(yè)、休閑、旅游等領(lǐng)域的需求，以及柴油等燃料的供應(yīng)減少，美國國內(nèi)外異常緊張的柴油市場不太可能在短期內(nèi)緩解。

“通貨膨脹率太高了”

根據(jù)美國汽車協(xié)會（AAA）日前發(fā)布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，美國全國平均柴油價格周一（5月9日）達到每加侖5.54美元的紀(jì)錄高位，高于去年同期的3.111美元，比平均汽油價格每加侖高出逾1.20美元。

著名的汽油價格追蹤應(yīng)用軟件GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德·哈恩在每周周一評論說：“不僅柴油價格處于歷史高位，而且柴油與汽油之間的價差也達到歷史最高水平，超過2008年的98美分，目前每加侖柴油溢價1.2美元。 盡管汽車司機加滿汽油的價格略有上升，但柴油價格的激增將會是一個雙重重?fù)?，這是因為柴油價格很快就會傳遞到零售渠道，從而進一步推高大宗商品的成本?！?/p>

不久前，哈恩曾評論說：“就目前而言，由于航空燃油價格加速上漲，雜貨店、五金店或者你的下一班航班肯定會感受到柴油價格的上漲，導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹率持續(xù)上升，可能波及整個經(jīng)濟。”

美聯(lián)儲試圖遏制猖獗的通貨膨脹率，美聯(lián)儲日前宣布20多年來最大的一次加息，將基準(zhǔn)利率提高0.5個百分點。

美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾在美聯(lián)儲做出貨幣政策決定后的新聞發(fā)布會上表示：“美國時下的通貨膨脹率太高了，我們理解它造成的困難，我們正在迅速采取行動，讓通貨膨脹率回落?！?/p>

“如果我們要讓就業(yè)市場狀況持續(xù)強勁，讓所有人都受益，就必須降低通貨膨脹率?！滨U威爾補充道。

在近日發(fā)布的《金融穩(wěn)定報告》中，美聯(lián)儲指出，“甚至在軍事沖突爆發(fā)之前，通貨膨脹率就已經(jīng)比預(yù)期的更高、更持久，通貨膨脹率前景的不確定性給金融狀況和經(jīng)濟活動帶來了風(fēng)險?！?/p>

“通貨膨脹率和利率的進一步負(fù)面意外，特別是如果伴隨著經(jīng)濟活動的下降，可能會對金融系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響?！泵缆?lián)儲警告稱，這種組合可能會削弱家庭和企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況，“導(dǎo)致違約、破產(chǎn)和其他形式的財務(wù)困境的增加。”

柴油價格飆升：“可能沖出太陽系”

由于柴油價格影響到經(jīng)濟的方方面面，貨幣政策制定者應(yīng)對通貨膨脹率變得更加艱難，因為大幅加息可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟活動和家庭支出惡化，最終導(dǎo)致衰退。  

但是，美國的柴油價格創(chuàng)下歷史最高紀(jì)錄，短期內(nèi)無法治愈。需求在上升，而美國東海岸的柴油庫存量處于多年低點，創(chuàng)歷史新低。

EIA在最新的每周庫存報告中說，4月份的最后一周，美國餾分油庫存減少230萬桶，比五年同期平均水平低22%左右。包括柴油在內(nèi)的餾分油庫存為1.05億桶，處于2008年以來的最低水平。在美國東海岸，由于該地區(qū)的煉油廠產(chǎn)能在過去10年里減少一半，目前僅為81.8萬桶/天，目前處于歷史最低水平。

由于全球餾分油市場在爆發(fā)軍事沖突以后支持那些產(chǎn)品的高煉油利潤率，所以，今年美國煉油商可以尋求提高柴油和航空燃料加工量，而不是專注于在夏季駕駛季節(jié)提高汽油產(chǎn)量。  

瓦萊羅能源公司執(zhí)行副總裁兼首席商務(wù)官蓋理· 西蒙斯在4月底召開的公司第一季度財報電話會議上表示，美國燃料庫存“非常、非常緊張，尤其是柴油庫存更加緊張”。

西蒙斯補充稱，瓦萊羅能源公司今年3月份煉油利潤率創(chuàng)歷史新高，其中柴油業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)漲。

如果歐盟就禁止進口原油和石油產(chǎn)品達成某種妥協(xié)，全球柴油危機預(yù)計將進一步惡化。這將使柴油價格居高不下，影響到美國和其他國家的所有經(jīng)濟活動，最終影響到消費者。  

油價信息服務(wù)公司（OPIS）全球能源研究主管湯姆·克洛扎告訴美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）記者皮帕·斯蒂文斯，目前紐約港的柴油價格在每加侖5美元左右，每桶遠(yuǎn)高于200美元。  

“這些不只是打破舊紀(jì)錄的數(shù)字。它們離開了墻壁，走出了大樓，也許走出了太陽系?！笨寺逶嬖VCNBC記者。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Record High Diesel Prices Will Ripple Across The Economy

·     Diesel prices have hit record highs due to very tight domestic inventories and a global supply shortage.

·     A combination of spiking demand and falling supply  has hit diesel markets hard.

·     Not only are diesel prices at record highs, but they are also at their largest differential to gasoline in history.

The highest inflation in the U.S. in four decades is set to persist and even increase in the coming months as the price of diesel is at record highs amid very tight domestic inventories and a global shortage of supply.  Diesel is used in every part of the industrial activity and supply chain, from goods transportation to manufacturing and agriculture; it fuels America’s economy. Diesel prices have soared to record highs in recent months, adding further upward pressure on U.S. inflation figures. The exceptionally tight diesel market at home and abroad is unlikely to ease any time soon, considering the post-COVID demand from industry and for leisure and travel, as well as the reduced supply of diesel, other fuels.

“Inflation is much too high”

The national average U.S. diesel prices were at a record $5.540 per gallon on Monday, per AAA data, more than $1.20 a gallon over the average gasoline price, and up from $3.111 at this time of the year in 2021.

“Not only are diesel prices at a record high, they are at their largest differential to gasoline on record, surpassing the 98-cent difference in 2008 and currently standing at a $1.20 per gallon premium. While motorists filling with gasoline have seen a slight rise in prices, diesel’s surge will be a double whammy as diesel prices will soon be passed along to retail channels, further pushing up the cost of goods,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a weekly commentary on Monday.

A week earlier, De Haan commented that “For now, the rising cost of diesel will surely be felt in the grocery store, hardware store or on your next flight as jet fuel prices accelerate, leading to a continued rise in inflation likely to ripple across the economy.”

The Fed is seeking to curb the rampant inflation, announcing last week the single largest interest rate hike in more than two decades, when it raised the key rate by 0.50 percentage point.  

“Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the press conference following the monetary policy decision.

“It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all,” Powell added.

In the Financial Stability Report published this week, the Fed noted that “inflation has been higher and more persistent than expected, even before the war, and uncertainty over the inflation outlook poses risks to financial conditions and economic activity.”

“Further adverse surprises in inflation and interest rates, particularly if accompanied by a decline in economic activity, could negatively affect the financial system,” the Fed warned, adding that this combination could weaken the finances of both households and businesses, “l(fā)eading to an increase in delinquencies, bankruptcies, and other forms of financial distress.”

Diesel Price Surge “Maybe Out of the Solar System”  

As diesel prices impact every part of the economy, the fight against inflation becomes more complicated for monetary policymakers, as steeper interest rate hikes could lead to the deterioration of economic activity and household spending and, ultimately, recession.

However, there is no short-term cure to the record diesel prices in the United States. Demand is going up, while inventories are at multi-year lows and at a record low on the U.S. East Coast.

Distillate fuel inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels in the last week of April and are about 22% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report. At 105 million barrels, distillate inventories—which include diesel—are at their lowest since 2008. On the East Coast, there are at their lowest ever, as the refinery capacity in the region has halved over the past decade to just 818,000 barrels per day now.

So, instead of focusing on boosting the production of gasoline in the summer driving season, this year U.S. refiners could be looking to raise diesel and jet fuel runs, as the global market of distillates is very tight following the war  and supports high refinery margins for those products. 

U.S. inventories are “very, very tight, especially tight for diesel,” Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Valero Energy,said on the Q1 earnings call at the end of April.

Valero Energy saw its highest-ever March refining margins this year, led by diesel, Simmons added.

The global diesel crunch is expected to worsen if the EU reaches some kind of a compromise on banning  crude and oil product imports. This will keep diesel prices elevated, impacting every economic activity in the U.S. and elsewhere, and ultimately hitting consumers. 

Currently, diesel at New York harbor is trading at around $5 per gallon, which is well above $200 per barrel, Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at OPIS, toldCNBC’s Pippa Stevens.

“These are numbers that are not just off the charts. They’re off the walls, out of the building, and maybe out of the solar system,” Kloza told CNBC.