據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)5月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)周二發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署預(yù)計(jì)，今年第二季度布倫特原油平均價(jià)格為每桶107美元。

4月份布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶105美元。

根據(jù)短期能源展望的數(shù)據(jù)，EIA預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年油價(jià)將降至每桶103美元，明年將降至每桶97美元——是2020年平均價(jià)格的兩倍多。

不過(guò)，EIA警告稱(chēng)，它是在5月5日做出這些預(yù)測(cè)的，當(dāng)時(shí)歐盟尚未對(duì)進(jìn)口石油實(shí)施進(jìn)口禁令。EIA表示，這一決策將進(jìn)一步推高油價(jià)。

對(duì)于WTI原油，EIA估計(jì)，2022年全年均價(jià)將為98.20美元，明年將跌至92.4美元。

到2022年，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量平均將達(dá)到1190萬(wàn)桶/天，僅比去年增加70萬(wàn)桶/天。然而，EIA預(yù)計(jì)，明年的增產(chǎn)幅度將更大，2023年平均為1280萬(wàn)桶/天，創(chuàng)歷史新高。

EIA在當(dāng)天的預(yù)測(cè)中表示：“地緣政治沖突進(jìn)一步升級(jí)等各種因素，使5月份的短期能源展望的不確定性上升。”

2022年4月全球石油和液體燃料消費(fèi)量為每天9740萬(wàn)桶，比去年4月增加210萬(wàn)桶。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，2022年全年的平均消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)為9960萬(wàn)桶/天，比4月份短期能源展望的預(yù)估量減少20萬(wàn)桶/天。

EIA預(yù)測(cè)，最近創(chuàng)下新高的美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格，將從2021年的每加侖3.02美元和2020年的每加侖2.18美元，上升到今年的3.82美元和明年的3.51美元。

季廷偉 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA Sees Brent Crude At $107 In Q2 2022

The Energy Information Administration sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $107 per barrel in the second quarter this year, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.

Brent crude prices averaged $105 per barrel in April.

The EIA sees prices dipping in the second half of the year to $103 per barrel, according to the STEO, before falling to an average of $97 per barrel next year—more than double the average price for 2020.

However, the EIA cautioned that it made these projections on May 5, prior to any EU ban on  oil imports, which, the EIA says, would raise prices further.

For WTI crude, the EIA estimates that the full-year 2022 price will average $98.20, slipping to $9.24 next year.

U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million bpd in 2022, up just 700,000 from the average last year. Next year, however, the EIA sees the increase as much more substantial, averaging 12.8 million bpd in 2023—achieving a new record.

The EIA prefaced its projections by saying, “The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors.”

The EIA pegged April 2022 global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels at 97.4 million barrels per day—an increase of 2.1 million bpd from last April. Full-year 202 consumption is expected to average 99.6 million bpd—a 200,000 bpd decrease from its April STEO.

The EIA estimates that gasoline prices, which have recently hit new highs in the United States, will average $3.82 this year and $3.51 per gallon next year—up from $3.02 per gallon in 2021 and $2.18 per gallon in 2020.