自2015年以來，圭亞那共獲得了31個(gè)石油發(fā)現(xiàn)，僅在2022年就有5個(gè)新發(fā)現(xiàn)。

僅從目前正在開發(fā)的項(xiàng)目來看，圭亞那有望成為世界上最大的20個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)之一。

圭亞那正尋求組建一家國(guó)有石油公司，以確保對(duì)該國(guó)石油行業(yè)的主導(dǎo)地位，巴西國(guó)家石油公司(Petrobras)是潛在合作伙伴。

據(jù)今日油價(jià)5月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，南美洲最新石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)圭亞那，正在繼續(xù)努力為其石油繁榮奠定基礎(chǔ)。2015年，全球能源巨頭?？松梨?ExxonMobil)在圭亞那近海660萬英畝的Stabroek區(qū)塊首次發(fā)現(xiàn)石油，?？松梨谧鳛檫\(yùn)營(yíng)商持有45%的開采權(quán)益，其合作伙伴Hess持有25%的權(quán)益。

隨后，?？松瓲款^的財(cái)團(tuán)發(fā)現(xiàn)了一系列高質(zhì)石油，最新發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)生在2022年4月。?？松梨谠赟tabroek區(qū)塊東南部的Barreleye-1、Patwa-1和Lukanani-1井發(fā)現(xiàn)了石油。這是自2022年初以來的第五個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)，自埃克森美孚開始在該區(qū)塊鉆井以來，總共獲得了31個(gè)石油發(fā)現(xiàn)。

根據(jù)最新發(fā)現(xiàn)，?？松梨趯⑵鋵?duì)Stabroek區(qū)塊可采石油資源估計(jì)上調(diào)至近110億桶。這使得圭亞那石油儲(chǔ)量超過了鄰國(guó)哥倫比亞、厄瓜多爾和阿根廷，要知道，這些國(guó)家都是南美五大石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。

自2015年?？松梨谑状伟l(fā)現(xiàn)石油以來，圭亞那在很短的時(shí)間內(nèi)就成為拉丁美洲和加勒比地區(qū)第七大石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。自Liza Unity FPSO于2022年2月上線以來，作為L(zhǎng)iza第二階段開發(fā)的一部分，圭亞那石油日產(chǎn)量已超過13萬桶。值得一提的是，?？松梨谡赟tabroek區(qū)塊開發(fā)價(jià)值90億美元的Payara項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目將于2024年開始運(yùn)營(yíng)，日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到22萬桶。這家能源巨頭最近還承諾投資100億美元開發(fā)位于Stabroek海上區(qū)塊的Yellowtail項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目在2025年投產(chǎn)后最終日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到25萬桶。

僅由埃克森牽頭的財(cái)團(tuán)在Stabroek區(qū)塊開發(fā)的項(xiàng)目，就將使圭亞那成為全球前20大產(chǎn)油國(guó)之一。埃克森美孚估計(jì)，到2027年，圭亞那每天將從Stabroek開采120萬桶原油，按2021年的石油產(chǎn)量計(jì)算，圭亞那將排名全球第17位。

這一最新進(jìn)展凸顯了Stabroek區(qū)塊對(duì)埃克森美孚日益增長(zhǎng)的重要性，預(yù)計(jì)該區(qū)塊將成為該公司原油生產(chǎn)的一個(gè)主要來源。低運(yùn)營(yíng)成本進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)了該區(qū)塊吸引力。Liza一期開發(fā)期間的收支平衡點(diǎn)為每桶35美元（布倫特原油價(jià)格），而Liza二期一旦產(chǎn)能達(dá)到飽和，預(yù)計(jì)將在每桶25美元的水平上實(shí)現(xiàn)盈虧平衡。

即將投產(chǎn)的Payara和Yellowtail項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)將在每桶32美元和29美元時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)收支平衡。這些行業(yè)內(nèi)較低的盈虧平衡價(jià)格，突顯了Stabroek區(qū)塊對(duì)埃克森牽頭財(cái)團(tuán)的可觀盈利能力，特別是在考慮開采石油的低碳強(qiáng)度時(shí)。

越來越多的人猜測(cè)，圭亞那原油產(chǎn)量將在2027年之前達(dá)到?？松梨?20萬桶/天的目標(biāo)，原因是新發(fā)現(xiàn)石油數(shù)量穩(wěn)定，可開發(fā)石油資源不斷增加，投資增加，以及重要行業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的加快建設(shè)。圭亞那正在考慮一系列措施，旨在通過增加勘探、油田開發(fā)和關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資來加速石油繁榮。該國(guó)正在考慮一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵措施，即成立一家國(guó)有石油公司，如果該公司被采納，圭亞那將效仿拉丁美洲鄰國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)所采用的模式。此舉將阻止?？松瓲款^的財(cái)團(tuán)競(jìng)標(biāo)進(jìn)一步的勘探許可證，并增強(qiáng)政府對(duì)該行業(yè)的主導(dǎo)權(quán)。到目前為止，該行業(yè)一直掌握在這家全球石油巨頭手中。

這將解決人們對(duì)?？松梨谂c圭亞那交易的部分擔(dān)憂。分析人士稱該交易具有剝削性，會(huì)對(duì)圭亞那不利。行業(yè)分析人士認(rèn)為，該國(guó)從?？松梨讷@得的回報(bào)低于平均水平，而智庫(kù)Global Witness認(rèn)為，圭亞那通過這筆交易損失了550億美元。圭亞那正在尋找一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略合作伙伴來組建企業(yè)，并表示可以在中東找到合作伙伴。雖然圭亞那在中東有相當(dāng)多的行業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，尤其是國(guó)有石油行業(yè)和政府主導(dǎo)的石油公司，但它可以找到一個(gè)離家更近的合作伙伴。

圭亞那與鄰國(guó)巴西舉行會(huì)談，巴西國(guó)家石油公司正在推動(dòng)世界上最大的海上石油繁榮之一。以前曾就在圭亞那建設(shè)關(guān)鍵石油工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，特別是圭亞那大西洋海岸的一個(gè)深水港與巴西利亞進(jìn)行過協(xié)商，該港口將為海上石油工業(yè)提供關(guān)鍵支持。這一設(shè)施不僅將為圭亞那服務(wù)，而且還將為缺乏關(guān)鍵運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的巴西北部服務(wù)。在圭亞那和巴西最近的討論中，確定了四個(gè)發(fā)展領(lǐng)域，包括深水港、公路鐵路線、能源走廊，以及光纖通信技術(shù)的引進(jìn)。隨著基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的開發(fā)和投入使用，它將為能源公司提供更多進(jìn)入圭亞那近海領(lǐng)域的途徑，加速這個(gè)國(guó)家的石油繁榮。這種合作可能會(huì)讓“與巴西國(guó)家石油公司合作”成為一種更合理的選擇，尤其是在考慮到該國(guó)有石油公司可觀的深水鉆井專業(yè)知識(shí)的情況下。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Guyana Is On Track To Become A Leading Global Oil Producer

Since 2015, there have been 31 oil discoveries in Guyana, with five new discoveries in 2022 alone.

based purely on the projects that are currently being developed, Guyana is on course to become one of the 20 largest oil-producing countries in the world.

The government of Guyana is now looking to form a national oil company to ensure control over its oil industry, with Brazil’s Petrobras as a potential partner.

South America’s latest oil-producing nation, the former British colony of Guyana, is continuing to lay the groundwork for its oil boom. In 2015, global energy supermajor ExxonMobil, which is the operator holding a 45% working interest, and partners Hess with 30% and CNOOC holding 25%, made their first discovery in offshore Guyana in the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block. The Exxon-led consortium then went on to make a swath of high-quality oil discoveries with the latest occurring in April 2022. Exxon found oil with the Barreleye-1, Patwa-1, and Lukanani-1 wells which were drilled in the southeast of the Stabroek Block. That is five oil discoveries since the start of 2022 and a total of 31 finds since Exxon started drilling in the Block. The latest discoveries saw Exxon upgrade its estimate for the Stabroek Block’s recoverable oil resources to nearly 11 billion barrels. That endows Guyana with more oil reserves than nearby Colombia, Ecuador, and Argentina, all of which rank among the top-5 petroleum-producing nations in South America. In the short period since Exxon’s first 2015 discovery, Guyana has become the seventh-largest oil producer in Latin America and the Caribbean. The deeply impoverished former British colony has been pumping over 130,000 barrels per day since the Liza Unity floating, production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO) came online in February 2022 as part of the Liza Phase 2 development. Exxon is developing the $9 billion Payara project in the Stabroek Block, which on commencing operations in 2024 will pump up to 220,000 barrels per day. The energy supermajor also recently committed to the $10 billion Yellowtail development, also in the offshore Stabroek Block, which will eventually produce 250,000 barrels daily after coming online in 2025. The projects being developed by the Exxon-led consortium in the Stabroek Block alone will catapult Guyana to become a leading top-20 oil-producing nation globally. Exxon estimates that it will be pumping 1.2 million barrels of crude oil daily from Stabroek by 2027, which based on 2021 oil production will see Guyana ranked 17th globally.

The latest developments underscore the growing importance of the Stabroek Block for Exxon with it expected to become a major source of crude oil production for the company. The block’s attractiveness is further enhanced by low operating costs. Liza Phase 1 has a breakeven price of $35 per barrel Brent while Liza Phase 2 once it reaches full production capacity is expected to break even at $25 per barrel. The Payara and Yellowtail projects on commencing operations are expected to break even at $32 and $29 per barrel Brent respectively. Those industry-low breakeven prices underscore the considerable profitability of the Stabroek Block for the Exxon-led consortium, particularly when the low-carbon intensity of the oil being extracted is considered.

There is growing speculation that Guyana’s crude oil output will reach the 1.2 million barrels per day targeted by Exxon before 2027 because of the steady volume of new oil discoveries, rising exploitable oil resources, increased investment, and the building-out of vital industry infrastructure. The national government in Georgetown is considering a range of measures aimed at accelerating Guyana’s oil boom by bolstering investment in exploration, oilfield development, and critical infrastructure. A key measure being considered by Georgetown is the formation of a state-run oil company, which if adopted will see Guyana follow the model used by neighboring oil producers in Latin America. Such a move would block the Exxon-led consortium from bidding on further exploration licenses and boost the government’s control over the industry, which until now has been in the hands of the global oil supermajor.

That would address some of the concerns raised regarding the deal made by Exxon with Georgetown, which analysts labeled as exploitive and unfavorable for the impoverished South American nation. Industry analysts believe that Georgetown is receiving a below-average return from Exxon, while think tank Global Witness believes that Guyana’s government has forfeited $55 billion through the deal. Guyana’s government is seeking a strategic partner to form such an enterprise with it flagging that such a partner could be found in the Middle East. While there is considerable industry experience in the Middle East, notably with nationalized oil industries and government-controlled petroleum companies, Georgetown could find a partner far closer to home.

Guyana’s government has held discussions with neighboring Brazil where national oil company Petrobras is driving one of the world’s largest offshore oil booms. There have been previous consultations with Brasilia regarding the construction of crucial oil industry infrastructure in Guyana, notably a deep-water port on Guyana’s Atlantic coast which will provide crucial support to the offshore oil industry. Such a facility would service not only Guyana but also northern Brazil where there is a shortage of critical transport infrastructure. In recent discussions between Georgetown and Brasilia, four areas of development were identified; the deep-water port, a road-rail link, an energy corridor, and the introduction of fiber optics communications technology. As that infrastructure is developed and commissioned it will provide greater access to offshore Guyana for energy companies causing the former colony’s oil boom to accelerate. Such cooperation could make partnering with Petrobras a more logical choice than seeking a deal with a Middle Eastern entity, especially when the national oil company’s considerable deep-water drilling expertise are considered.