據(jù)財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)站FXstreet 5月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF) 4月23日發(fā)表了一份報(bào)告，指出油價(jià)上漲可能會(huì)對(duì)全球通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景產(chǎn)生影響。

報(bào)告指出：“對(duì)一些人來說，油價(jià)上漲可能會(huì)讓人想起上世紀(jì)70年代，當(dāng)時(shí)地緣政治緊張也導(dǎo)致化石燃料價(jià)格飆升。

“人們對(duì)高通脹和隨著而來的緩慢增長(zhǎng)(即所謂的滯脹)的記憶加劇了對(duì)可能重演的擔(dān)憂。但重要的是，時(shí)代已經(jīng)改變了。

“自上世紀(jì)70年代以來，各國(guó)央行也發(fā)生了變化。如今，更多的銀行是獨(dú)立的，貨幣政策的可信度在過去幾十年里得到了廣泛加強(qiáng)。

“我們預(yù)計(jì)，全球增長(zhǎng)將接近疫情發(fā)生前3.5%的平均水平，即使我們?cè)?月份的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》下調(diào)了預(yù)測(cè)，但增速仍可能比預(yù)期放緩得多，通脹可能高于預(yù)期。

“有鑒于對(duì)能源進(jìn)口相對(duì)來說更高的依賴性，歐洲可能是表現(xiàn)最為明顯的地方。”

季廷偉 摘譯自 FXstreet

原文如下：

IMF: Rising crude oil prices will worsen inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report on Sunday, citing the impact of rising oil prices might on inflation global inflation and growth outlook.

Key takeaways

“For some, rising oil prices may echo the 1970s when geopolitical tensions also caused fossil fuel prices to spike.”

“Memories of the high inflation and slow growth that followed—known as stagflation—have fueled concerns about a possible repeat. importantly, though, times have changed.”

“Central banks, too, have changed since the 1970s. More are independent today, and the credibility of monetary policy has broadly strengthened over the intervening decades.”

“We expect global growth to be close to the pre-pandemic average of 3.5 percent, even after our April World Economic Outlook lowered projections, but it still could slow more than forecast, and inflation could turn out higher than expected.”

“This may be most salient for parts of Europe, given their relatively higher reliance on Russian energy imports.”