據(jù)伍德麥肯茲4月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，如果沒(méi)有低碳?xì)?，世界將無(wú)法在2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放。這種超級(jí)萬(wàn)能的能源載體將在電力、鋼鐵和化肥等難以減排的高排放行業(yè)發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。對(duì)于依賴進(jìn)口石油、天然氣和煤炭的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，這也可以成為解決方案之一，以加強(qiáng)能源安全。

4月27日和28日在倫敦召開(kāi)的氫會(huì)議將詳細(xì)研究這些重大主題，其中包括1.4萬(wàn)億美元的機(jī)遇，即低碳?xì)渖a(chǎn)，包括藍(lán)氫和綠氫，如何從今天幾乎為零擴(kuò)大到5億噸，到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)占全球一次能源結(jié)構(gòu)的15%。這正是全球需要努力為之實(shí)現(xiàn)的，加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型方案實(shí)現(xiàn)氣溫升高不超過(guò)1.5°C。氫分析師Bridget van Dorsten介紹了她對(duì)氫行業(yè)發(fā)展的最新思考。

第一，全球?qū)Φ吞細(xì)涔?yīng)的投資正在加大。第一季度宣布了75個(gè)新項(xiàng)目，總產(chǎn)能為1110萬(wàn)噸/年，接近季度紀(jì)錄。美國(guó)主導(dǎo)了第一季度的項(xiàng)目公告，占51%，而西班牙(20%)、巴拉圭(11%)和埃及(8%)則反映了氫能在全球的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。

這些新項(xiàng)目使全球天然氣管道總量增加了20%，達(dá)到6400萬(wàn)噸/年，其中近三分之二位于包括澳大利亞、英國(guó)、美國(guó)和荷蘭在內(nèi)的6個(gè)主要國(guó)家。

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，利用可再生電力從水中電解出的綠氫一直是主導(dǎo)項(xiàng)目，在2018年至2021年期間占到所有項(xiàng)目的80%。剩下部分是通過(guò)將天然氣分解成氫氣和二氧化碳產(chǎn)生的藍(lán)氫，這種藍(lán)氫安裝了碳捕獲和封存裝置。

在2022年第一季度，我們看到了一個(gè)有趣的轉(zhuǎn)變，即綠氫項(xiàng)目占到項(xiàng)目中的95%，而藍(lán)氫項(xiàng)目?jī)H占5%。這可能是第一季度做出投資決定的項(xiàng)目具有的特殊性，但藍(lán)氫投資放緩將為CCS開(kāi)發(fā)者敲響警鐘，特別是在歐洲，目前所有CCS項(xiàng)目一半都是制藍(lán)氫使用的。

第二，能源危機(jī)將刺激國(guó)際氫氣貿(mào)易。氫是歐洲未來(lái)能源結(jié)構(gòu)核心，在地緣政治沖突發(fā)生后，歐洲擺脫對(duì)進(jìn)口天然氣依賴之際，氫的地位更是如此。但未來(lái)幾年天然氣和電力價(jià)格上漲，可能會(huì)削弱歐洲藍(lán)氫和綠氫的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。其結(jié)果將是投資減少，加強(qiáng)歐洲能源安全所需的國(guó)內(nèi)氫氣項(xiàng)目出現(xiàn)供小于求。

歐洲的損失將是氫出口國(guó)的收益。在天然氣和電力價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定、生產(chǎn)成本較低的市場(chǎng)，包括中東、北非、澳大利亞和美國(guó)的生產(chǎn)商將成為贏家。

第三，電解器供應(yīng)商正在迅速建立“超級(jí)工廠”規(guī)模設(shè)施，規(guī)模一直在上升。供應(yīng)商有45吉瓦項(xiàng)目積壓，而到2023年，目前的生產(chǎn)能力每年只能支持14吉瓦，不過(guò)，這種不匹配是任何新興行業(yè)都會(huì)出現(xiàn)的典型現(xiàn)象。

具體政策將進(jìn)一步提高門(mén)檻。英國(guó)政府最近宣布將其氫氣產(chǎn)能目標(biāo)從500萬(wàn)千瓦增加一倍至1000萬(wàn)千瓦，這也向國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)鏈發(fā)出了強(qiáng)烈信號(hào)。

第四，全球政策正在為氫能增長(zhǎng)奠定基礎(chǔ)。去年11月的第26次締約方會(huì)議是各國(guó)設(shè)定凈零目標(biāo)的催化劑，對(duì)許多國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，氫氣正在成為交付的核心部分。目前，已有超過(guò)75個(gè)國(guó)家的政府宣布了不同發(fā)展階段的氫能計(jì)劃、路線圖、戰(zhàn)略和目標(biāo)。印度(擴(kuò)大氫政策)、克羅地亞(路線圖)、秘魯(路線圖開(kāi)發(fā))和丹麥(路線圖澄清)都在2022年第一季度提出了氫政策。

第五，承購(gòu)協(xié)議有助于行業(yè)的早期融資，對(duì)降低項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)至關(guān)重要。作為迄今為止最大的協(xié)議之一，澳大利亞的Fortescue Future Industries和德國(guó)公用事業(yè)公司E.ON簽署了諒解備忘錄，在2030年之前交付500萬(wàn)噸。預(yù)計(jì)，隨著氫氣行業(yè)的成熟，承購(gòu)協(xié)議將激增，商業(yè)安排將演變?yōu)殚L(zhǎng)期合同。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲

原文如下：

How the energy crisis is a boon for hydrogen exporters

The world won’t get to net zero by 2050 without low-carbon hydrogen. This super-versatile energy carrier will have a critical role in decarbonising hard-to-abate, high-emissions sectors including power, steel and fertiliser. It can also be part of the solution for countries reliant on imported oil, gas and coal to bolster energy security.

Our Hydrogen Conference on 27 and 28 April in London will examine the big themes in detail. Among these is the US$1.4 trillion growth opportunity: how low-carbon hydrogen production, blue and green, scales up from almost zero today to 0.5 Bt, meeting 15% of the global primary energy mix by 2050. That’s what needs to happen in AET-1.5, our accelerated energy transition scenario to get the world on a 1.5 °C pathway. Bridget van Dorsten, Hydrogen Analyst, is speaking at the conference and took me through her latest thoughts on how the industry is developing.

First, global investment in low-carbon hydrogen supply is ramping up. There were 75 new project announcements in Q1, totalling 11.1 mmtpa of new capacity, close to a quarterly record. The US (51%) dominated the Q1 project announcements, while Spain (20%), Paraguay (11%) and Egypt (8%) give a sense of how hydrogen is going global.

These new projects lifted the cumulative global pipeline by 20% to 64 mmtpa, of which almost two-thirds are in the six leading countries including Australia, the UK, the US and the Netherlands.

Green hydrogen, electrolysed from water using renewable electricity, has long dominated the project pipeline, accounting for 80% of all projects from 2018 to 2021. Blue hydrogen, produced by splitting natural gas into hydrogen and CO2 and fitted with carbon capture and storage, has accounted for the rest.

Q1 2022 saw an intriguing shift with green hydrogen projects accounting for 95% of those added to the project pipeline, with blue hydrogen just 5%. This may prove to be a quirk of the flow of projects reaching investment decisions in Q1. But the slowdown in blue hydrogen investment will set alarm bells ringing for CCS developers, particularly in Europe where half of all current CCS projects are for blue hydrogen use cases.

Second, the energy crisis will stimulate international trade in hydrogen. Hydrogen is central to Europe’s future energy mix, even more so as it pivots away from dependence on imported gas following the war. But elevated gas and power prices over the next several years threaten to weaken the economics of blue and green hydrogen in Europe. The result will be less investment and a deficit in the domestic hydrogen projects required to strengthen Europe’s energy security.

Europe’s loss will be hydrogen exporters’ gain. Producers in markets with relatively stable gas and power prices and lower costs of production – including the Middle East, North Africa, Australia and the US – will be among the winners.

Third, electrolyser vendors are moving quickly to build “gigafactory”-scale facilities, but the size of the prize keeps moving up. Vendors have a project backlog of 45 GWel whereas current manufacturing capacity will only support 14 GWel annually by 2023. We think such mismatches are typical of any nascent industry.

Concrete policy will lift the bar further. The UK government recently announced a doubling of its hydrogen capacity target from 5 GW to 10 GW. That also sends a strong signal for the domestic supply chain to put down roots.

Fourth, policy globally is laying the foundations for growth. COP26 last November was the catalyst for countries to set net zero targets and for many, hydrogen is becoming a central part of the delivery. More than 75 governments have now announced hydrogen plans, roadmaps, strategies and goals at various stages of development. India (expansion of hydrogen policy), Croatia (roadmap), Peru (roadmap development) and Denmark (roadmap clarification) all advanced a hydrogen policy in Q1 2022.

Lastly, offtake agreements are helping the early-stage financing of the industry and are vital to de-risking projects. In one of the biggest agreements so far, Australia-based Fortescue Future Industries and German utility E.ON signed an MoU to deliver 5 Mtpa by 2030. We expect offtake agreements to proliferate and for commercial arrangements to evolve into long-term contracts as the industry matures.