據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年4月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司發(fā)布的一份新報(bào)告顯示，該公司將今年亨利中心天然氣期貨價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)至4.9美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。  

惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司的分析師在報(bào)告中指出，他們上調(diào)了之前4美元/ 百萬(wàn)英熱單位的預(yù)測(cè)，因?yàn)樗麄冾A(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)液化天然氣（LNG）出口將繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，而美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)夏季制冷用電需求強(qiáng)勁。 

展望未來(lái)，分析師在報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，亨利中心明年的天然氣期貨平均價(jià)格將在4.5美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2024年在4.75美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2025年在4.85美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2026年在4.5美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。 這一預(yù)測(cè)明顯高于彭博共識(shí)的預(yù)測(cè)。 彭博共識(shí)預(yù)計(jì)，亨利中心天然氣期貨的平均價(jià)格今年為4.1美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2023年為3.9美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2024年為4美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2025年為3.9美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，2026年為3.4美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。  

分析師說(shuō)：“在更大范圍內(nèi)實(shí)施禁止煤炭、石油和天然氣貿(mào)易的制裁措施的可能性，都對(duì)亨利中心的天然氣期貨價(jià)格有利，因?yàn)橘I家在可能的情況下急于取代進(jìn)口。如果對(duì)歐洲能源貿(mào)易的持續(xù)影響出現(xiàn)，正如我們所預(yù)期的那樣，美國(guó)液化天然氣進(jìn)口的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭將強(qiáng)勁，為未來(lái)幾年新增產(chǎn)能提供了一個(gè)現(xiàn)成的目的地。”

“然而，由于歐洲買家仍致力于限制排放的氣候目標(biāo)，對(duì)頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境影響的擔(dān)憂，可能會(huì)限制新建立的貿(mào)易關(guān)系的長(zhǎng)期可行性?！狈治鰩熑缡钦f(shuō)。  

惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司報(bào)告出爐時(shí)，亨利中心的天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格為6.4美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。 

在4月12日發(fā)送給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中，挪威雷斯塔能源公司高級(jí)分析師Vinicius Romano強(qiáng)調(diào)，亨利中心的天然氣期貨價(jià)格在4月12日上午達(dá)到了13年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)，超過(guò)了6.7美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，原因是美國(guó)北部和加拿大南部的大部分地區(qū)正在經(jīng)歷一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的冬季。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Raises Henry Hub Price Forecast

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has raised its 2022 Henry Hub price forecast to $4.9 per MMBTU, a new report from the company has revealed.

Analysts at the company outlined in the report that they increased their previous forecast of $4 per MMBTU as they expect continued strong growth in U.S. LNG exports against strong domestic consumption for electricity for summer cooling.

Looking further ahead, the analysts forecasted in the report that the Henry Hub price would average $4.5 in 2023, $4.75 in 2024, $4.85 in 2025, and $4.5 in 2026. The projections were notably higher than the Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report. The Bloomberg Consensus sees the Henry Hub price averaging $4.1 this year, $3.9 in 2023, $4 in 2024, $3.9 in 2025, and $3.4 in 2026.

“The outbreak of Russia Ukraine war in late February 2022 is keeping energy markets on edge, with uncertainty on the scale of disruptions to energy trade remaining a key concern, keeping energy price volatility high,” the Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts stated in the report.

“The potential to implement sanctions banning coal, oil and natural gas trade on a wider scale are all bullish for Henry Hub prices as buyers rush to replace Russian imports where possible. If lasting impacts to energy trade to Europe emerge, as we expect, the upside for U.S. LNG imports is strong, adding a ready destination for new capacity additions in the coming years,” the analysts added in the report.

“However, concerns about environmental impacts linked to the shale derived natural gas, could limit the long-term viability of new-found trade relationships as European buyers remain committed to climate targets limiting emissions,” the analysts continued.

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research’s report was created when the Henry Hub spot price was $6.4.

In a market note sent to Rigzone on April 12, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Vinicius Romano highlighted that the Henry Hub price was at a 13-year high on Tuesday morning, topping $6.7MMBTU, “as large swathes of the northern U.S. and Southern Canada experience a prolonged winter”.