據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)3月18日?qǐng)?bào)道，周五美國(guó)天然氣期貨下跌逾2%，由于產(chǎn)量緩慢回升，而且預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)兩周的供暖需求將低于此前預(yù)期，這將使公用事業(yè)公司下周開(kāi)始向儲(chǔ)氣庫(kù)注入天然氣——大約比平時(shí)提前一周。

美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格下跌之際，全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨笫姑绹?guó)LNG出口接近歷史高位，歐洲天然氣價(jià)格是美國(guó)期貨價(jià)格的7倍左右。

美國(guó)即月天然氣期貨下跌12.7美分，跌幅2.5%，收于每百萬(wàn)英國(guó)熱單位4.863美元。周四，該合約以3月4日以來(lái)的最高價(jià)收盤(pán)。

在上周下跌約 6%之后，本周即月指數(shù)上漲了約 3%。

美國(guó)的天然氣期貨仍然不受全球價(jià)格的影響，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)擁有國(guó)內(nèi)使用所需的所有燃料，而且該國(guó)出口更多液化天然氣的能力受到產(chǎn)能限制的限制。

美國(guó)已經(jīng)接近滿負(fù)荷生產(chǎn)液化天然氣。因此，無(wú)論全球天然氣價(jià)格上漲多高，它都無(wú)法在短期內(nèi)生產(chǎn)更多的超冷燃料。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv表示，隨著更多油氣井在今年早些時(shí)候凍結(jié)后恢復(fù)使用，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的日均天然氣產(chǎn)量有望從2月份的925億立方英尺上升到3月份的931億立方英尺。而去年12月份為962億立方英尺。

據(jù)Refinitiv預(yù)計(jì)，隨著氣溫上升，包括出口在內(nèi)的美國(guó)天然氣日均需求將從本周的1097億立方英尺降至下周的954億立方英尺，然后在兩周后天氣再次變冷時(shí)升至983億立方英尺。對(duì)下周的預(yù)測(cè)低于Refinitiv周四的展望。

3月迄今為止，流向美國(guó)LNG出口工廠的天然氣數(shù)量已從2月的124.3億立方英尺/天增至127.2億立方英尺/天，而1月為124.4億立方英尺/天。美國(guó)有能力每天將約127億立方英尺天然氣轉(zhuǎn)化為液化天然氣。

據(jù)貿(mào)易商表示，只要全球天然氣價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于美國(guó)期貨價(jià)格，美國(guó)液化天然氣出口將保持在紀(jì)錄水準(zhǔn)附近，因全球公用事業(yè)公司爭(zhēng)相購(gòu)買(mǎi)天然氣，以滿足亞洲不斷飆升的需求，并補(bǔ)充歐洲較低的庫(kù)存。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，西歐(比利時(shí)、法國(guó)、德國(guó)和荷蘭)的天然氣庫(kù)存比過(guò)去五年(2017-2021年)同期的平均水平低約38%。相比之下，美國(guó)的庫(kù)存比正常水平低17%。

歐洲天然氣期貨交易價(jià)格接近每百萬(wàn)英熱單位34美元，亞洲為36美元，而美國(guó)為5美元左右。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下:

US Natgas Slides Over 2% On Rising Output, Mild Weather

U.S. natural gas futures slid more than 2% on Friday as output slowly returns and on forecasts for less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week — about a week earlier than usual.

That U.S. price decline came even as global demand for gas keeps U.S. LNG exports near record highs and European gas prices about seven times over U.S. futures.

U.S. front-month gas futures fell 12.7 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $4.863 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since March 4.

That put the front-month up about 3% for the week after it fell about 6% last week.

U.S. gas futures remain shielded from global prices because the United States has all the fuel it needs for domestic use, and the country's ability to export more LNG is limited by capacity constraints.

The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity. So, no matter how high global gas prices rise, it will not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel anytime soon.

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.1 Bcfd in March from 92.5 Bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 Bcfd in December.

Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.7 Bcfd this week to 95.4 Bcfd next week as temperatures climb before rising to 98.3 Bcfd in two weeks when cooler weather returns. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 12.72 Bcfd so far in March from 12.43 Bcfd in February and a record 12.44 Bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.7 Bcfd of gas into LNG.

Traders said U.S. LNG exports would remain near record levels so long as global gas prices trade well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe.

Gas stockpiles in Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) were about 38% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, according to Refinitiv. That compares with inventories about 17% below normal in the United States.

Gas futures traded near $34 per MMBtu in Europe and $36 in Asia, compared with around $5 in the United States.