據(jù)安迅思3月3日消息稱，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）周四在其年度能源展望中表示，到 2050 年，原油和天然氣仍將是美國(guó)消耗最多的能源，但可再生能源將是增長(zhǎng)最快的能源。

EIA的預(yù)測(cè)取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的速度，并根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的高低做出假設(shè)。

EIA預(yù)測(cè)，在2023年參考案例中，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平(GDP增長(zhǎng)2.2%)，并在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)保持穩(wěn)定，同時(shí)指出，盡管基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格上漲，但2021年的產(chǎn)量并未增長(zhǎng)。

EIA 預(yù)計(jì)，到 2050 年，美國(guó)天然氣的生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)量將增長(zhǎng)，其中大部分增長(zhǎng)來自液化天然氣 (LNG) 的出口，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)速度幾乎是消費(fèi)量的兩倍。

EIA表示:“到2050年，我們預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)的天然氣產(chǎn)量將比消費(fèi)量高出約25%。”

EIA指出，隨著6家美國(guó)煉油廠的關(guān)閉或改造，2020年至2021年期間，美國(guó)的蒸餾操作能力下降了3.5%，但它預(yù)計(jì)利用率在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)將保持平穩(wěn)。

EIA 表示：“我們預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年，利用率將恢復(fù)到接近歷史平均水平的水平，但對(duì)于煉油廠來說，如果超過這個(gè)點(diǎn)，通過提高利用率來彌補(bǔ)產(chǎn)能損失，將不劃算。由于產(chǎn)能下降和利用率穩(wěn)定，我們預(yù)計(jì)，長(zhǎng)期來看，精煉產(chǎn)品的總產(chǎn)量將保持在峰值水平以下?！?/p>

EIA表示，預(yù)計(jì)可再生柴油在燃料組合中的份額將會(huì)增加，但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，它在整個(gè)柴油組合中所占的份額仍然很小。

EIA 預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，天然氣占發(fā)電總量的比例將穩(wěn)定在三分之一左右，而同期可再生能源的比例將翻一番。

EIA表示，從2020年到2050年，天然氣預(yù)計(jì)將占累計(jì)新增產(chǎn)能的40%以上。

曹海斌 摘譯自 安迅思

原文如下：

Crude, natgas most-consumed US energy sources – EIA

Crude oil and natural gas will remain the most-consumed US energy sources through 2050, but renewables will be the fastest-growing segment, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday in its annual energy outlook.

The EIA’s forecasts depend on the speed of economic growth and makes assumptions based on high and low rates of growth.

The EIA projects US crude production to return to pre-pandemic levels in the reference case (GDP growth of 2.2%) in 2023 and stabilise over the long term, while noting that production did not grow in 2021 despite higher benchmark prices.

The EIA expects production and consumption of US natural gas to grow through 2050, with much of the growth fueled by exports of liquified natural gas (LNG), as production is forecast to grow almost twice as fast as consumption.

“By 2050, we project that approximately 25% more natural gas will be produced than consumed in the US,” the EIA said.

The EIA noted that US distillation operating capacity was reduced by 3.5% between 2020 and 2021 with the closures or conversions of six US refineries, but it expects utilisation rates to remain flat over the long term.

“We project that utilisation rates will return to near historical averages in 2022, but it will not be cost-effective for refineries to make up for lost capacity by increasing utilisation beyond this point,” the EIA said. “As a result of lower capacity and stable utilisation, we expect total production of refined products to remain below peak levels over the long run.”

The EIA said it expects the share of renewable diesel in the fuel mix to increase but remain just a fractional part of the total diesel fuel mix in the long term.

The EIA held its projection for the percentage of natgas in the generation mix steady through 2050 at about one-third, even as the percentage of renewables doubles over the same time frame.

Natural gas is also forecast to account for more than 40% of cumulative capacity additions from 2020 to 2050, the EIA said.