?隨著目前油價(jià)穩(wěn)定在每桶90美元上方，我們可能會在2022年看到并購交易激增，并購活動的潛力將創(chuàng)下多年來的新高。  

?盡管油價(jià)可能處于高位，但由于ESG的擔(dān)憂以及圍繞該行業(yè)持久的問題，公共和私人買家的數(shù)量正在減少。  

?盡管油價(jià)上漲可能會推動更多并購交易，但全球買家池的減少意味著這些交易的估值不太可能大幅上升。

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，最近幾個(gè)季度，油價(jià)上漲推動了全球上游行業(yè)合并和收購活動的增加，并將在2022年引發(fā)上游行業(yè)更多的并購交易。

去年，由于大宗商品價(jià)格反彈，國際石油巨頭開始剝離非核心資產(chǎn)，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商整合并建立了高質(zhì)量的資產(chǎn)庫存，該行業(yè)的交易和高價(jià)值交易再次出現(xiàn)。 

分析師表示，如果目前處于2014年秋季以來最高水平的油價(jià)保持高位，今年上游行業(yè)的并購交易活動很有可能創(chuàng)下多年來的最高水平。 

美國頁巖行業(yè)將很可能繼續(xù)推動全球并購交易價(jià)值，而私募股權(quán)支持的公司將繼續(xù)在上游行業(yè)并購交易中扮演重要角色。  

然而，世界權(quán)威能源調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)伍德麥肯茲表示，全球上游市場的新現(xiàn)實(shí)表明，私人股本不會是交易活動的靈丹妙藥，盡管它仍將是尋求撤資的公司的一個(gè)選擇。

不斷萎縮的買家池

由于環(huán)境、社會和治理(ESG)對企業(yè)減排的壓力增加，全球更多的上市石油公司正在出售非核心資產(chǎn)，因?yàn)樗鼈兿Ｍ浞掷米约旱暮诵馁Y產(chǎn)，同時(shí)準(zhǔn)備在能源轉(zhuǎn)型中生存和發(fā)展。 

當(dāng)然，這將導(dǎo)致更多的資產(chǎn)可供爭奪。 然而，買家越來越少，因?yàn)楦嗟臐撛谕顿Y者關(guān)注資產(chǎn)的ESG概況，更喜歡能立即帶來現(xiàn)金增值的項(xiàng)目。

私募股權(quán)公司也是潛在買家之一，他們將密切關(guān)注企業(yè)和資產(chǎn)的ESG和排放概況。

伍德麥肯茲分析師表示：“ESG對私人股本很重要，不僅僅是因?yàn)橥顺鐾緩健?一些私人股本基金直接感受到了來自其最終所有者--有限合伙人--的ESG壓力。 這些支持者通常包括養(yǎng)老基金等機(jī)構(gòu)，其中許多機(jī)構(gòu)越來越多地實(shí)現(xiàn)了自己的凈零軌跡?！?nbsp; 

分析師表示，包括私募股權(quán)在內(nèi)的上游行業(yè)的買家數(shù)量有限，他們將尋找經(jīng)濟(jì)上合理、已經(jīng)能產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流的項(xiàng)目。 

分析師說：“新進(jìn)入者以及過去難以獲得足夠行業(yè)回報(bào)的投資者，不太可能涌入上游行業(yè)。 對于希望退出大量非核心頭寸的賣家來說，私募股權(quán)買家可能是一個(gè)選擇，但它們不太可能是萬靈藥?！?/p>

伍德麥肯茲指出，私募股權(quán)公司目前對上游業(yè)務(wù)的投資機(jī)會越來越多感到喜憂參半，但石油和天然氣行業(yè)--不僅在美國，而且在全球范圍內(nèi)--“可能會進(jìn)入一個(gè)更廣泛的私人所有權(quán)池”。

在2022年活躍年達(dá)成交易

分析師表示，盡管能源轉(zhuǎn)型中上游資產(chǎn)的吸引力存在不確定性，但由于油價(jià)上漲，今年的并購交易活動可能會加強(qiáng)。

伍德麥肯茲上游并購高級研究分析師埃特金和斯科特·沃克1月份在其對今年全球上游行業(yè)并購交易活動的展望報(bào)告中表示，如果大宗商品價(jià)格保持穩(wěn)定，今年全球上游行業(yè)并購交易量可能達(dá)到多年來的最高水平。 

分析師指出，“在2021年期間，公司融資和執(zhí)行收購的能力有了不可估量的提高--我們可以從越來越多的大型現(xiàn)金資產(chǎn)交易中清楚地看到這一點(diǎn)。 如果大宗商品價(jià)格保持高位，執(zhí)行交易的能力就會一直提高到2022年?！?/p>

埃特金和斯科特·沃克表示，國際石油巨頭可以利用當(dāng)前的升級周期，在所有地區(qū)進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)處置，因?yàn)樗麄內(nèi)杂写罅抠Y產(chǎn)需要出售。 

挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司還認(rèn)為，在去年達(dá)到1810億美元的3年來最高水平后，今年的上游行業(yè)并購交易活動將加速，將恢復(fù)到疫情爆發(fā)之前的水平。

雷斯塔能源公司1月份曾表示，“交易渠道強(qiáng)勁，上游并購市場似乎將繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)，美國的并購交易可能仍將是全球并購交易價(jià)值的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動力。 其他地區(qū)的大規(guī)模銷售也可能在今年實(shí)現(xiàn)，特別是如果主要公司繼續(xù)精簡他們的投資組合?！?/p>

能源數(shù)據(jù)分析公司Enverus在1月份發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中表示，“總體而言，全球上游并購市場將迎來一個(gè)活躍的2022年?！?/p>

Enverus表示，特拉華盆地和海恩斯維爾盆地的更多資產(chǎn)預(yù)計(jì)將投入市場，而米德蘭盆地和馬塞勒斯東北部干氣等其他地區(qū)的高質(zhì)量庫存仍將存在，盡管這些地區(qū)出售資產(chǎn)的賣家越來越少。  

Enverus表示：“在威利斯頓盆地 (巴肯盆地)和鷹福特盆地等其他更成熟的地區(qū)，大量高產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)可能會投放市場，價(jià)格可能具有吸引力，吸引公共和私人買家?！?nbsp;

交易估值將不會飆升

不過，根據(jù)伍德麥肯茲發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，交易估值預(yù)計(jì)將不會隨著油價(jià)和交易活動的上升而飆升。 這是因?yàn)樵诒泵酪酝獾牡貐^(qū)，傳統(tǒng)買家的數(shù)量明顯減少，而且潛在買家仍然關(guān)注資本紀(jì)律，尤其是在北美，在私募股權(quán)領(lǐng)域更是如此。 此外，ESG和排放概況也將計(jì)入上游資產(chǎn)估值，因?yàn)闈撛谫I家將衡量一些資產(chǎn)的高碳足跡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

伍德麥肯茲的分析師在今年全球上游行業(yè)并購交易展望報(bào)告中表示：“這可能意味著，范圍1和范圍2的碳排放將受到碳價(jià)格假設(shè)的影響，或者對長期現(xiàn)金流施加額外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以應(yīng)對全球未來的需求疲軟?！?nbsp;

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下： 

Mergers And Acquisitions To Spike Alongside Oil Prices

·     With oil prices now firmly above $90 we will likely see a surge in deals in 2022, with the potential of M&A activity booking a multi-year high.

·     While oil prices may be high, the pool of both public and private buyers is shrinking due to ESG concerns and questions surrounding the longevity of the industry.

·     While higher oil prices are likely to drive more deals, the lower buyer pool around the world means the valuations of the deals are unlikely to jump.

Rallying oil prices have been driving increased mergers and acquisitions activity in the global upstream sector in recent quarters and are set to incentivize more deals in 2022.

Deal-making and high-value deals in the sector returned in 2021 as commodity prices rebounded, international majors moved to divest non-core assets, and U.S. shale producers consolidated and built quality inventories of assets.  

If oil prices - currently at their highest since the autumn of 2014 - remain high, M&A activity has a good chance of booking a multi-year high this year, analysts say.

The U.S. shale patch will likely continue driving deals value globally, and private equity-backed firms will continue to be important players in the upstream M&A deals.

Yet, the new realities in the global upstream market suggest that private equity will not be the panacea for deal activity, although it will continue to be an option for companies looking to divest, Wood Mackenzie says.

Shrinking Buyers’ Pool  

As environmental, social, and governance (ESG) pressures rise on firms to reduce emissions, more public companies globally are putting up non-core assets up for sale as they look to make the best of their core assets while preparing to survive and thrive in the energy transition.

This, of course, leads to more assets up for grabs. Yet, buyers are fewer as more potential investors look at the ESG profile of assets and prefer immediate cash-accretive projects.

Private equity is also among those potential buyers that will be looking closely at the ESG and emissions profiles of companies and assets.

“ESG matters to private equity, and not solely because of exit routes. Some private equity funds are feeling direct ESG pressure from their ultimate owners - the limited partners.?These backers often include institutions such as pension funds, many of whom increasingly have their own net zero trajectories,” says WoodMac’s Greig Aitken, Corporate Research, and Neivan Boroujerdi, Principal Analyst, North Sea Upstream.

The limited pool of buyers in the upstream space, including private equity, will look for economically sound projects that already generate cash, the analysts say.

“New entrants, and investors who have struggled to generate adequate industry returns in the past, are unlikely to flood into the sector. For sellers looking to exit vast non-core positions, private equity buyers might be an option, but they’re unlikely to be a panacea,” Wood Mackenzie notes.

Private equity currently has mixed feelings about the increasing opportunities to invest in the upstream business, but the oil and gas industry-not only in the U.S. but worldwide-“is likely to move into a wider pool of private ownership,” WoodMac pointed out.  

Deal-Making Set For Active Year In 2022

Despite the uncertainties over the attractiveness of upstream assets in the energy transition, deal-making will likely strengthen this year as oil prices rally, analysts say.

Upstream M&A deal flow could hit a multi-year high in 2022 if commodity prices hold steady, WoodMac’s Aitken and Scott Walker, Senior Research Analyst, Upstream M&A, said in their 2022 outlook of the global upstream last month.