2021年，綠色氫氣項(xiàng)目數(shù)量激增

加強(qiáng)公私合作對(duì)增加投資至關(guān)重要

據(jù)今日油價(jià)1月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，分析人士和預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)表示，低碳?xì)淇梢栽谀茉疵芗彤a(chǎn)業(yè)脫碳、幫助各國(guó)減少排放、向凈零排放目標(biāo)邁進(jìn)方面發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。已宣布的綠色氫項(xiàng)目(即那些希望利用可再生能源從電解水中生產(chǎn)氫的項(xiàng)目)數(shù)量在過(guò)去一年中激增，比2020年宣布的項(xiàng)目數(shù)量增加了一倍。

然而，可再生氫在大幅降低成本方面仍面臨著一個(gè)艱難曲線(xiàn)，在成為具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的大規(guī)模替代灰氫(由化石燃料制成)或藍(lán)氫(使用碳捕獲技術(shù)從天然氣中生產(chǎn))道路上也存在障礙。

氫氣股票降溫

投資者似乎已經(jīng)意識(shí)到，綠色氫能源光明未來(lái)仍然依賴(lài)于大幅降低成本，并成為一種有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的能源。根據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》編制的FactSet數(shù)據(jù)，電解槽制氫企業(yè)股價(jià)在前一年強(qiáng)勁上漲后，在2021年出現(xiàn)了回落。

《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》Rochelle Toplensky指出，市場(chǎng)似乎已經(jīng)意識(shí)到，要成為傳統(tǒng)燃料和存儲(chǔ)解決方案有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的大規(guī)模替代品，綠氫燃料還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走，這仍然取決于政府在部署、需求創(chuàng)造和成本削減方面的激勵(lì)和舉措。

綠氫項(xiàng)目正在蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)

盡管低成本氫燃料制造商在2021年股票表現(xiàn)開(kāi)始反映出華爾街重新調(diào)整的觀(guān)點(diǎn)，即綠氫燃料可能需要長(zhǎng)達(dá)10年時(shí)間才能變得具有成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，但綠氫燃料項(xiàng)目正以有史以來(lái)最快的速度發(fā)展。

根據(jù)全球首席執(zhí)行官領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的氫理事會(huì)(Hydrogen Council) 2021年11月報(bào)告，2021年宣布的項(xiàng)目超過(guò)520個(gè)，比2020年增加了100%。在這些項(xiàng)目中，有221個(gè)是大規(guī)模工業(yè)用途項(xiàng)目，133個(gè)是運(yùn)輸部門(mén)項(xiàng)目，74個(gè)是綜合氫經(jīng)濟(jì)項(xiàng)目，51個(gè)是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目，43個(gè)是千兆規(guī)模的生產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目。

根據(jù)氫能委員會(huì)的說(shuō)法，這種燃料對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)榈?050年它可以減少800億噸二氧化碳，對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)脫碳能源系統(tǒng)至關(guān)重要。

清潔氫需要更多投資和政策支持

然而，在這十年中，規(guī)模也將是關(guān)鍵，投資也將是關(guān)鍵，因?yàn)樵趦袅闱闆r下仍需要5000億美元額外投資。該委員會(huì)表示，更密切的公私合作對(duì)增加投資至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)榈?030年，需要將投資增加四倍，才能使世界走上實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零軌道。

康明斯董事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官、氫理事會(huì)聯(lián)合主席Tom Linebarger在評(píng)論該報(bào)告時(shí)表示:“氫投資勢(shì)頭明顯，但要實(shí)現(xiàn)如此大規(guī)模轉(zhuǎn)變，需要通過(guò)強(qiáng)有力的伙伴關(guān)系和政策支持，前所未有地調(diào)動(dòng)公共和私人資源”。

國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在10月發(fā)布《2021年全球氫能源評(píng)估報(bào)告》(Global hydrogen Review 2021)中表示，清潔氫能源需要更多承諾和投資，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)成本降低和在各個(gè)行業(yè)的使用。

國(guó)際能源署表示，“各國(guó)政府需要更快、更果斷地采取一系列政策措施，使低碳?xì)淠軌虬l(fā)揮潛力，幫助世界實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放，同時(shí)支持能源安全”。

IEA執(zhí)行董事法提赫·比羅爾（Fatih Birol）表示，“我們之前在氫燃料方面有過(guò)失敗的開(kāi)始，所以我們不能想當(dāng)然地認(rèn)為成功。但這一次，我們看到在使氫更清潔、更便宜、更可用于不同經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)方面取得了令人振奮的進(jìn)展”。

該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，政府和私人對(duì)氫能源的投資仍遠(yuǎn)低于使該行業(yè)在2050年達(dá)到凈零所需的資金。各國(guó)已承諾提供至少370億美元，私營(yíng)部門(mén)已宣布投資3000億美元。然而，國(guó)際能源署指出，到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)零碳排放需要1.2萬(wàn)億美元投資，用于低碳?xì)涞墓?yīng)和使用，直至2030年。

綠色氫燃料什么時(shí)候才具有成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力?

據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)稱(chēng)，低碳?xì)淙剂蠈⒃谖磥?lái)十年內(nèi)變得具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。伍德曼肯茲氫研究分析師吉特·范·多爾斯滕（Bridget van Dorsten）上月表示，到2030年，綠氫在一些主要市場(chǎng)將具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，其中巴西和智利是領(lǐng)先者。

他表示，目前，綠氫能源在全球能源市場(chǎng)上份額很小，與化石燃料替代能源相比，在很大程度上仍然缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

伍德曼肯茲表示，由于一系列因素，包括規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、市場(chǎng)新進(jìn)入者、更高的自動(dòng)化程度和模塊化程度，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年電解器資本支出將顯著下降。

伍德曼肯茲認(rèn)為，當(dāng)?shù)吞季G氫成本在主要市場(chǎng)上變得具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力時(shí)，氫的真正游戲規(guī)則改變時(shí)刻將到來(lái)。

多爾斯滕指出，“然而，凈零野心背后的動(dòng)力意味著投資者押注于其長(zhǎng)期潛力”。

可再生氫有機(jī)會(huì)成為全球能源市場(chǎng)一種改變游戲規(guī)則的替代燃料。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Will Hydrogen Finally Live Up To The Hype?

The number of green hydrogen projects soared in 2021

Closer public-private collaboration is critical to increasing investments

Low-carbon hydrogen could play a crucial role in the decarbonization of energy-intensive industries and in helping nations to reduce emissions and move closer to their net-zero emission targets, analysts and forecasting agencies say. The number of announced green hydrogen projects—those looking to produce hydrogen from water electrolysis using renewable energy—has soared over the past year, doubling from the number of projects announced in 2020. 

Renewable hydrogen, however, still faces a steep learning curve for significant cost reductions as well as roadblocks on the path to becoming a competitive large-scale alternative to grey hydrogen, made from fossil fuels, or blue hydrogen produced from natural gas using carbon capture.  

Hydrogen Stocks Cool 

Investors have seemed to realize that the bright future for green hydrogen still depends on achieving significant cost reductions and becoming a competitive energy source. Shares in electrolyzer hydrogen-producing companies retreated in 2021, following a blistering rally in the previous year, according to FactSet data compiled by The Wall Street Journal.

The market seems to have realized that green hydrogen still has a long way to go to become a competitive large-scale alternative to traditional fuels and storage solutions, and still depends on government incentives and initiatives for deployment, demand creation, and cost reductions, the Journal’s Rochelle Toplensky notes. 

But Green Hydrogen Projects Gather Momentum

While the stock performance of low-cost hydrogen makers in 2021 has started to reflect the Street’s recalibrated view that it could take green hydrogen up to a decade to become cost-competitive, green hydrogen projects are being announced at the fastest pace ever seen. 

More than 520 projects were announced in 2021, up by 100 percent compared to 2020, according to a November 2021 report by the Hydrogen Council, a global CEO-led initiative. As many as 221 of those projects are for large-scale industrial usage, 133 in the transport sector, 74 in the integrated hydrogen economy, 51 are infrastructure projects, and 43 are giga-scale production projects, the Council said in its ‘Hydrogen for Net-Zero’ report. 

According to the Hydrogen Council, the fuel is central to reaching net-zero emissions because it can abate 80 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 and is critical in enabling a decarbonized energy system.

Clean Hydrogen Needs More Investment, Policy Support

However, scaling will also be critical this decade, as will be investments because half a trillion U.S. dollars in additional investment is still needed in net-zero scenarios. 

Closer public-private collaboration is critical to increasing investments because a fourfold increase is required by 2030 to put the world on the trajectory to Net Zero, the Council says. 

“There is clear momentum in hydrogen investments, but a transformation of such magnitude requires unprecedented mobilisation of public and private resources through strong partnerships and policy support,” said Tom Linebarger, Chairman and CEO of Cummins and Co-Chair of the Hydrogen Council, commenting on the report. 

Clean hydrogen needs more pledges and investments in order to see cost reductions and usage in various industries, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Global Hydrogen Review 2021 in October. 

“Governments need to move faster and more decisively on a wide range of policy measures to enable low-carbon hydrogen to fulfill its potential to help the world reach net zero emissions while supporting energy security,” the IEA said. 

“We have experienced false starts before with hydrogen, so we can’t take success for granted. But this time, we are seeing exciting progress in making hydrogen cleaner, more affordable and more available for use across different sectors of the economy,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.  

Government and private investment in hydrogen are still way below the capital necessary to put the sector on track for net-zero by 2050, the agency says. Countries have committed at least $37 billion, and the private sector has announced $300 billion in investment. Yet, net-zero by 2050 requires $1.2 trillion of investment in low-carbon hydrogen supply and use through to 2030, the IEA notes. 

When Will Green Hydrogen Become Cost Competitive?

According to the agency, low-carbon hydrogen can become competitive within the next decade. 

Green hydrogen can be competitive in some major markets by 2030, with Brazil and Chile front-runners, Bridget van Dorsten, Hydrogen Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said last month. 

Currently, green hydrogen has a small share of the global energy market and is still largely uncompetitive against fossil-fuelled alternatives, van Dorsten says. 

Electrolyzer capex is expected to significantly decline by 2025, due to a range of factors, including economies of scale, new entrants to the market, greater automation, and increased modularity, according to Wood Mackenzie. 

The real game-changer for hydrogen will come when low-carbon green hydrogen costs become competitive in major markets, WoodMac reckons. 

“However, the momentum behind net zero ambitions means that investors are betting on its long-term potential,” van Dorsten noted.  

Renewable hydrogen has the chance to become an alternative game-changer fuel for the global energy market, but it has to overcome several barriers before that.